【作者】 郭红玉； 孙东升；

【机构】 对外经济贸易大学金融学院；

【摘要】 根据最优货币区理论,东亚经济的飞速发展使东亚出现了经济与货币一体化的趋势,亚洲金融危机加快了东亚货币经济合作的步伐。中国经济的良好发展为人民币币值稳定奠定了经济基础,以内需为主的经济增长模式为中央银行调整货币的内外平衡提供了市场条件,亚洲金融危机使人民币在亚洲的地位大大提升。因此,人民币有能力成为区域性的核心货币,人民币区域化应该成为人民币可自由兑换发展战略的组成部分,使人民币成为完全可自由兑换货币之日,即实现人民币区域化之时。为此,本文提出如下政策建议:1、人民币应实行稳中有升的战略,既发挥汇率的“锚效应”,又要有目的地提升的人民币的购买力和普遍接受程度。2、将在“10+1”自由贸易区合作框架内推动人民币的区域化作为近期目标,可以考虑采取下列措施,①近期内放松人民币出境的限制;②鼓励在区域内成员国的企业和个人间贸易中选择使用人民币计价结算;③鼓励国内的商业银行在“10+1”成员国内开设分支机构,以为推广使用人民币结算创造条件;④开放A股市场;⑤最终取消人民币兑换外汇的限制,使人民币实现自由兑换。3、加速港澳自由贸易区的建设,实现人民币对港币和澳元的货币替代。4、逐步建立和开放金融市场。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the Optimal Currency Region Theory, the rapid development of East Asian economy makes East Asia emerge a trend of economic and monetary integration. The Asian financial crisis has speeded up the process of East Asian economic and monetary cooperation. The good performance of Chinese economy has laid a solid foundation for the stability of RMB. Chinese economic growth model with t e internal demand as the main drive has provided a good market environment for the central bank to seek internal and external monetary balance. Asian financial crisis has increased the status of RMB in Asia. Therefore, RMB has the potential to become the core currency of the region. Regionalization of RMB should be one of the components of RMB free convertibility strategy. The day RMB becomes fully convertible is the day RMB is regionalized. To this end, the paper makes the following policy suggestions: (1) RMB should follow the strategy of “steadily appreciating while remaining stable”. While making use of the “anchor effect” of exchange rate, we need to increase the purchasing power and general acceptability of RMB on purpose. (2) The short-term objective should be to promote the regionalization of RMB within the free trade zone framework of “10+1”. The following measures might be considered: Relax the restrictions regarding sending or bringing RMB out of the country in the near future; Encourage the enterprises and individuals of the member countries of the region to choose RMB as the denomination and settlement currency for trade; Encourage Chinese commercial banks to open branches in “10+1” member countries to provide RMB settlement services; Open A share market; Ultimately eliminate the restrictions on the convertibility of RMB and realize its full convertibility. (3) Speed up the construction of Hong Kong – Macao free-trade zone and realize the substitution of RMB for Hong Kong Dollar and Macao Dollar. (4) Establish and open financial market gradually.更多还原