未来十年全球经济金融走势及对策思考

【作者】 吴念鲁；

【机构】 中国人民银行研究生部；

【摘要】 “依存、合作、竞争、发展”是未来十年全球经济发展的主流,应透彻认识和协调处理好这八个字的辩证关系;区域集团化的发展,一定程度可制约经济全球化的负面影响,应重视区域经济合作,加强和维护亚洲金融稳定;金融自由化的纵深发展,金融风险与日剧增,应深化改革,提高金融政策的可信度和有关政策的协调能力;有管理浮动汇率与宽松的弹性的固定汇率将呈并存局面,应加强和完善我国外汇监管体系,循序渐进地推进人民币可兑换的进程;传统经济周期变化与经济增长的关系,将被信息时代、知识社会的生产变化所改变,应总结规律,抓住机遇,审时度势,趋利避害,实现科技和经济的超越。更多还原

【Abstract】 The mainstream of world economic development will be “Dependence, cooperation, competition, development” in next ten years. We must pay more attention to the relationsh ip between them and handle it better. The emergence of regional groups play so active role in restricting the negative impact of economic globalization that we must attach importance to regional economic cooperation, enhance financial stability in Asian. Because of the evolution of financial liberalization, financial risks grow steadily. It is necessary to deepen reforms, increase reliability of financial policies and synergetic effect of related policies. Since managed floating Exchange rate and fixed exchange rate will co-exit for a quite long time, we should improve our foreign exchange supervisory systems and promote Renminbis’ convertibility. The relationship between traditional economic cycle and economic growth will be changed by the development of information technology and knowledge society. It is very important for us to sum up the regular pattern of economic development, to hold the opportunity, to consider the situation, and realize technological and economic development.更多还原