【作者】 林鹏； 李艳； 李文杰； 张巧利； 黄国华； 廖华乐； 刘勇鹰； 王晔； 付笑冰； 张玉润； 赵金扣；

【Author】 Lin Peng~1 Li Yah~1 Li Wenjie~2 1 Center for Disease Control & Prevention of Guangdong Province,510300; 2 Center for Disease Control & Prevention of Yangjiang City in Guangdong Province,529500

【机构】 广东省疾病预防控制中心； 广东省阳江市疾病预防控制中心； 广东省东莞市疾病预防控制中心； 广东省肇庆市疾病预防控制中心； 广东省佛山市疾病预防控制中心； 全球艾滋病项目(GAP)中国项目办；

【摘要】 目的采用两种基数估计方法对广东省四市的吸毒人群规模进行估计,为广东全省吸毒人群的规模估计提供参考。方法于2005-2007年在广东省选取流动人口相对少和较多的地级市各两个,对戒毒所内的戒毒者进行问卷调查,采用简易乘数法、捕获—再捕获法对各市的吸毒人群规模进行估计,并与各市公安登记在册的吸毒人数及上一年戒毒所收治的戒毒人数相比较。结果流动人口相对少的两市,其吸毒人群规模约为登记在册数的1.39-3.70和1.33—2.05 倍,为上一年该市戒毒所戒毒人数的3.37-8.97和4.11-6.33倍;流动人口较多的两市,其吸毒人群规模约为登记在册数的1.58-2.78和1.89-2.52倍,为上一年戒毒所戒毒人数的7.81-13.74 和10.20-13.60倍。结论各地可根据本地流动人口状况、吸毒的严重性、戒毒力度等综合情况, 参考相应的倍数乘以当地吸毒者在册登记数或上一年戒毒所戒毒人数,估计该地的吸毒人群规模。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objectives This study is to estimate the population size of drug users in four prefectures in Guangdong province using two methods and provide scientific bases for population size estimate of drug users in the whole province.Methods Two prefectures with large migrant population and two prefectures with few migrants were selected.Multiplier method and capture-recapture method were applied to estimate the population size of drug users.Multipliers were obtained using the interview among the drug users in the detoxification centers.Ratios of estimated size of drug users over registered drug users by local Public Security Bureaus were calculated in each of prefectures.Results In the two prefectures with few migrant population,the estimated population size of drug users is 1.39 to 3.70 and 1.33 to 2.05 times of the number of the current registered drug users and 3.37.to 8.97and 4.11 to 6.33 times of the number of drug users detained in the detoxification centers in the previous year,while in those prefectures with large migrants,the ratios were 58 to 2.78,1.89 to2.52,7.81 to 13.74 and 10.20 to 13.60 respectively.Conclusion Other areas in Guangdong could estimate the population size of drug users using the local registered number of drug users with the ratios generated in the present study after adjustment according to local situation such as population size of migrant,severity of drug use and law enforcement to crack down drug use.更多还原