【作者】 刘兴朋； 张继权； 周道玮； 宋中山； 吴晓天；

【Author】 LIU Xingpeng, ZHANG Jiquan, ZHOU Daowei, SONG Zhongshan, WU Xiaotiao ( College of Urban and Environments] Sciences, Natural Disaster Research Institute, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024,China; Institute of Grassland Science,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China; Department of Grassland Fire Prevention,Supervision Center for Grassland, Ministry of Agriculture of the People’ s Republic of China, Beijing 100026,China)

【机构】 东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院东北师范大学自然灾害研究所； 东北师范大学草地科学研究所； 中国农业部草原监理中心草原防火处；

【摘要】 依据自然灾害风险分析原理,以GIS技术为支撑,在综合分析吉林省西部草原火灾各影响因子基础上,选取包括自然因子和社会因子在内的21个主要草原火灾影响因子,采用线性加权数学模型、层次分析法(AHP)和综合指数法,提出了草原火灾风险指数,对研究区草原火灾风险程度进行了定量评价．将吉林省西部草原火灾分为低(轻度)、中(中度)、高(重度)和极高(极重度)四个风险区．检验结果证明草原火灾风险评价和区划结果具有较高的可靠性,可为当地草原防火部门火灾管理和减灾决策制定提供依据和指导．更多还原

【Abstract】 In terms of natural disaster risk analysis rules, the grassland fire disaster risk index is set up based on the analysis of grassland fire hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery ability by using linear weighting model, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and integration index method. The risk degree and regionalization of grassland fire disaster are assessed and made respectively the west of Jilin province by using of the grassland fire disaster risk index,including terribly heavy, heavy, middle and light, the four risk regionalization. The results have higher reliability by examined. This study can be expected to provide the reference and guidance for managing grassland fire disaster and developing strategies to mitigate grassland fire hazard and reducing the losses from it.更多还原