【作者】 刘敏； 卢兆明；

【Author】 LIU Min, LO Siuming (Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

【机构】 香港城市大学建筑系；

【摘要】 提出运用遗传程序设计(GP)的方法建立类似于AR的非线性自回归模型的ARGP算法,来进行水文系统的中长期预报.本文具体阐述了ARGP算法的模型形式和演化建模过程,并对具体的水文问题进行了实例演算,得到了比较理想的结果.更多还原

【Abstract】 Hydrological system is an open and complex huge system. To predict the development of hydrological system, one just can make model to predict the hydrological status on next time point based on the past hydrological time series. This paper puts forward a new algorithm-ARGP algorithm based on nonlinear autoregressive model using Genetic Programming. And predict hydrological system in medium and long term. The model form of ARGP algorithm and the process of evolved modeling are described. Numerical experiments on hydrological data show the method is promising.更多还原