【作者】 魏津瑜； 苏思沁； 施鹤南；

【Author】 WEI Jinyu,SU Siqin,SHI Henan (School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

【机构】 天津理工大学管理学院；

【摘要】 以深圳市福田区居民生活用水量为研究对象,以小波多尺度分析方法为核心,与ARIMA模型相结合,对城市居民生活月需水量进行预测,通过对需水量时间序列规律的分析,建立基于小波分析的非平稳时间序列的预测模型,最后应用该模型进行需水量测量的实证分析。研究结果表明:该模型的预测精度在相对误差、一致性指标和有效系数上均有显著提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shenzhen Futian district residents water consumption was taken as the research object,and the monthly water demand of urban life with ARIMA model was analyzed based on wavelet multi-resolution analysis method.The forecast model of non-stationary time series was set with wavelet analysis by the water demand time series regularity.Finally,the model was applied to the empirical analysis of water demand forecast.The result shows that the model forecast accuracy has improved drastically on the relative error,consistency index and effectiveness-ratio.更多还原