【作者】 马师雷； 贺娟； 高思华；

【Author】 MA Shi-lei,HE Juan,GAO Si-hua(School of Basic Medical Sciences,Beijing University of Chinese Medicine,Beijing 100029,China)

【机构】 北京中医药大学基础医学院；

【摘要】 目的:在五运六气理论的指导下,探讨节气变更及气象因子变化与病毒性肝炎发病之间的关系,分析诱发或者加重病毒性肝炎的气象条件,并建立基于人工神经网络的医疗气象预测模型。方法:将搜集整理的北京市35年间的5项气象因子数据和病毒性肝炎发病数据,采用描述性统计分析、单因素相关性分析和BP人工神经网络分析进行研究。结果:病毒性肝炎的发病数在年度、六气时段内均呈现不平衡分布的流行趋势。在六气时段内病毒性肝炎的发病数与气象因子的变化趋势显著相关,平均相对湿度单个气象因子对病毒性肝炎发病的影响大。结论:病毒性肝炎的发病数与各气象因子及其变化趋势之间存在确切的关系,其中受平均相对湿度影响较大,这从一定程度说明了湿邪对于该疾病的影响,以及部分证明了五运六气理论对于该病的预测结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To investigate the relationship between outbreak of viral hepatitis and meteorological factors in the same period and in Beijing,analyze the weather condition inducing or aggravating this disease,as well as establish medical-meteorological forecast model for it.Methods: The descriptive statistics,single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation artificial neural net-work are used to study the data of five meteorological factors and the case data of viral hepatitis collected during the past 35 years in Beijing.Results: The incidence of viral hepatitis shows uneven distribution trends in the past years and in the phases of six-qi.The case number of viral hepatitis per phase and the change trends of the five meteorological factors respectively show a relationship of significant positive correlation.The average relative humidity has the largest contribution to the incidence of viral hepatitis.Conclusion: The incidence of viral hepatitis has a certain relationship with meteorological factors as well as change trends of meteorological factors,among which average relative humidity has a relatively dominate effect on the incidence of this disease.The results proof the influence of pathological dampness on the incidence of viral hepatitis,and the predictions guided by theory of Yunqi for the disease.更多还原