【作者】 郑海涛； 王冬；

【Author】 ZHENG Hai-tao,WANG Dong (School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Aeronantics and Astronautic,Beijing 100191,China)

【机构】 北京航空航天大学经济学管理学院；

【摘要】 本文使用半参数的方法,应用比例危险模型估计了不同首付比例下的住房抵押贷款违约率。研究揭示:当住房抵押贷款的首付比例从10%逐渐增加到89%时,贷款的违约率相应的从6.2%下降到1.3%,基本呈现一个首付比例越高,违约率越低的趋势。同时揭示了贷款放款后随着时间的增加,不同首付比例下,住房抵押贷款的违约率缓慢的增加,直到贷后第4年到第5年,贷款的违约率才有一个较为明显的增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper uses the proportional hazard model(PHM) to estimate the housing mortgage loan PD under different down payment rates.When the housing mortgage loan down payment ratio rises from 10%to 89%gradually, the corresponding PD declines from 6.2%down to 1.3%.The basic rate shows that the higher down payment ratio the lower PD.Meanwhile loan lenders after the increase with time,different down payment rates,the housing mortgage loan defaults slow the increase loan until after the first four to five years,the loan defaults have a more significant increase.更多还原