【作者】 汤洪秀； 徐利华； 林曦晨； 汪宏晶； 张庆； 蔡伟斌； 尹平；

【Author】 Tang Hongxiu,Xu Lihua,Lin Xichen et al. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(430030),Wuhan

【机构】 华中科技大学同济医学院公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系；

【摘要】 目的:介绍多状态Markov模型及其参数估计,并对艾滋病病程发展过程资料进行拟合评价,促进该模型在相关传染病防治中的应用。方法:收集某省CDC600例艾滋病病人的监测资料,建立多状态Markov模型,获得病人不同状态间转移的强度参数及艾滋病发展过程中各阶段的时间。结果:艾滋病病人在急性感染期经历的时间平均为0.22年;在无症状期(潜伏期)经历的时间平均为8.23年;在艾滋病前期经历的时间平均为1.57年。结论:多状态Markov模型是研究艾滋病发展过程的有效方法,在相关传染病研究中有着广阔的应用前景。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective:To introduce multi-state Markov model and estimates of its parameters,to evaluate the evolution of HIV infected patients with their suvival materials,to promote the application of Markov model in relevant infectious disease.Methods:Collect surveillance data of 600 HIV infected patients in certain province CDC,establishmulti-state Markov model, calculate its parameters transition intensity and the staying time in each state.Results:The staying time in acute infection period is 0.22 year;the staying time in asymptomatic period(incubation period) is 8.23 years;the staying time pre-AIDS period is 1.57 years.Conclution:multi-state Markov model is a effective method to evaluate the evolution of HIV infected patients,has wide prospect during the epidemiological study on relevant infectious diseases.更多还原