【作者】 赵飞； 朱蓉； 张丽娟； 张志杰； 李源培； 何明祯； 彭文祥； 周艺彪； 郭家钢； 赵根明； 姜庆五；

【Author】 ZHAO Fei,ZHU Rong~2,ZHANG Li-juan~2,ZHANG Zhi-jie~1,LI Yuan-pei~1,HE Ming-zhen~1,PENG Wen-xiang~1, ZHOU Yi-biao~1,GUO Jia-gang~2,ZHAO Gen-ming~1,JIANG Qing-wu~1.1.Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Fudan University,Key Laboratory on Public Health Safety,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 200032,China;2.National Institute of Parasitic Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200025,China.

【机构】 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室； 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所；

【摘要】 目的综合探测2008年湖区5省血吸虫病传播的聚集区域,为血吸虫病的防治工作提供依据,同时也为相关疾病聚集区域探测方法的建立提供参考。方法基于县级GIS基础上构建空间数据库,运用全局空间自相关Moran’s I、局部空间自相关Getis-Ord Gi与SaTScan软件综合探测血吸虫病聚集区域,并对结果进行比较。结果全局空间自相关结果提示从整体研究区域来看,血吸虫病感染率分布呈现空间聚集性(P<0.05);局部空间自相关结果提示有50个县(区)的局部空间自相关结果有统计学意义(P<0.05),且Z值均大于0,提示存在高值聚集;SaTScan统计结果探测出5个聚集区域,与局部空间自相关的结果较为吻合。结论湖区5省沿江地区仍然是血吸虫病防治的重点,尤以湖北、湖南交界地带空间聚集性最高、范围最大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To detect and analyse the schistosomiasis clusters on the marshland and lake areas based on GIS in 2008 and provide some suggestions for the foundation of integrated methodology about the cluster detection of related diseases.Methods Moran’s I of global spatial autocorrelation,Getis -Ord Gi of local spatial autocorrelation and SaTScan were used to detect the schistosomiasis clusters based on GIS and the comparison of the results for the different methods were performed.Results The result of the global Moran’s tests for all the marshland and lake areas related to the schistosomiasis was statistically significant(P<0.05) and indicated spatial heterogeneity;the z-score outcomes as calculated by Getis-Ord Gi indicated high cluster that 50 clusters were categorized at the 0.05 significance level and the z-score of these 45 clusters were more than 0;the result of SaTScan statistics was consistent with that of local spatial autocorrelation,showed 5 cluster areas.Conclusions The geographical distribution of clusters where there was a prevalence of schistosomiasis closely corresponded to the middle and lower Yangtse river,especially many clusters located near the boundary of Hubei and Hunan Province.更多还原