【作者】 钱燕华； 石平； 何恩奇； 邵洁； 孙纳； 祖荣强； 喻荣彬；

【Author】 QIAN Yan-hua,SHI ping,HE En-qi SHAO Jie~1,SUN Na~1,ZU Rong-qiang~2,YU Rong-bin~3.1.Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi 214023,China;2.Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210009, China;3.School of Public Health,Nanjin Medical University,Nanjing 210009,China

【机构】 无锡市疾病预防控制中心； 江苏省疾病预防控制中心； 南京医科大学公共卫生学院；

【摘要】 目的利用已有的非典预警及流感样病例两个症状监测系统,建立无锡市流感监测预警基线值,评价其在2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行中的早期预警效果。方法对2007-2009年无锡市非典预警数据及流感样病例监测数据进行分析,同时采用2004-2008年流感样病例监测数据建立基线数据,使用控制图法、移动平均回归方法 ,对2009年的流感样病例监测数据进行拟合,分析其对甲型H1N1流感大流行早期预警的效果。结果流感样病例监测数据(ILI%)自出现首例输入性病例前一个月就出现上升趋势,出现本地病例后上升趋势更明显;非典预警监测系统中发热呼吸道病例门诊就诊率高于2007、2008年同期水平(P<0.001),在出现本地病例前1周就出现上升趋势。控制图法显示,2009年流感疫情从第18周、第20～29周进入流行季节,第31～41周,第45～47周,第49周出现预警信息,移动平均回归法显示,第34～37周,46～47周二个时间段超过了平均线+2.0标准差预警线,上述与2009年甲型H1N1流感不同阶段流行趋势基本一致。结论两个监测系统2009年预警信号和实际甲型H1N1流感疫情基本吻合,综合利用控制图法、移动平均回归方法进行流感疫情早期预警,结果比较科学和可靠。移动平均回归法预警甲型H1N1流感暴发较控制图法在流行时间上更为精准。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To evaluate the early warning significance of influenza-like illness(ILI) surveillance in the pandemic(H1N1) 2009 in Wuxi.Methods The data of surveillance of SARS and ILI from 2007 to 2009 were analyzed,and according to the weekly ILI of two sentinel hospitals in Wuxi from 2004 to 2008,the surveillance data of 2009 ILI were fitted into models for early warning of inflecenza with two methods including control chart method and moving average regression method.Results The control chart method showed that the influenza activity began to increase at week 18,at week 20 to week 29,at week 31 to week 41,at week 45 to week 47 in 2009.The moving average regression method showed that significant increase of influenza incidence occurred at week 34 to week 37 and at week 46 to week 47 in 2009.Conclusions The simulative early warning signal in 2009 is approximately consistent with the actual pandemic(H1N1) incidence,which means that the two methods are both scientific and reliable, while the moving average regression method is more acute.更多还原