【作者】 李志强； 刘惠敏； 苏桂武；

【Author】 Li zhiqiang,Liu Huiming,Su Guiwu Institute of Geology,SSB,Beijing P.O.9803,100029

【机构】 中国地震局地质研究所；

【摘要】 地震灾害风险管理是减轻地震灾害,推进社会可持续发展的一个主要组成部分,风险管理作为一门具有现代管理意义的科学系统方法为全面合理地处置风险提供了一个系统完整的可能解决方案,它对各种控制措施进行了综合利用,从而使我们在整体上考虑灾害对人类社会的各种影响。本文通过对比不同的地震危险性计算理论和方法的结果,研究地震风险的起源、地震风险的量化、地震费率实现等,探讨地震风险管理的理论和方法在我国防震减灾、地震保险等方面的应用,分析地震风险管理中的保险问题,研究适合我国能力的地震保险的模式。在吸收、借鉴前人工作结果的基础上,对地震灾害风险管理系统进行了探索,提出了一个可操作地震灾害风险管理系统保险模型框架,给出了相应的定量的工作成果尝试——中国地震费率区划。更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake disaster risk management is an important component of earthquake mitigation and social sustainable development.As a comprehensive scientific aspect,risk management set up an integrated solution to handle with risk systematically,which can fully use different risk-control methods. In this paper,a comparative analysis on different earthquake assessment theories and related computation results were carried out,furthermore,the author studied a series of questions from the origin of earthquake risk to the quantitative analysis of earthquake pure premium.Finally,author tried to do a preliminary attempt to apply this theory to earthquake resistance and its risk financial analysis. After wide studying and investigation of former works,author studied the international adopted methods and national adopted method used by earthquake engineering and insurance company,put forward a manipulated and easy used framework for earthquake risk management,and studied a series of computer models and risk management system.更多还原