【作者】 许丽忠； 钟满秀； 韩智霞； 胡军； 黄梅芬； 张江山；

【Author】 Xu Li-zhong~* Zhong Man-xiu Han Zhixia Hu Jun Huang Meifen Zhang Jiangshan (Institute of Environmental Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China)

【机构】 福建师范大学环境科学研究所；

【摘要】 条件价值法是评估环境与资源价值的重要方法,但其有效性受到了质疑。在目前尚未寻找到可以替代条件价值法进行环境与资源价值评估的前提下,较为可行的方法是不断采取措施以完善条件价值法有效性。后续确定性问题就是基于这样的目的提出的。价值区间模型、信息经济学和心理学都为后续确定性问题的应用提供了理论支持。基于47个环境与资源项目条件价值评估的预测有效性实验的Meta分析结果证明了后续确定性问题的应用有助于提高CV的有效性。这一结论对CV实践有一定的借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Contingent valuation is an important method in environment and resource evaluation,but its validity is ongoing debated.As we have not found another method better than contingent valuation in environment and resource evaluation,a well-advised way we can do now is to consummate contingent valuation method as possible to enhance its validity.Follow-up certainty question is just one of the measures.We founded the theoretical support for follow-up certainty question from random valuation model,information economics and psychology.Then we addressed follow-up certainty question effectiveness statistically by using a meta-analysis of modified calibration factor from 46 contingent valuation predictive studies.Our empirical finding supported the hypothesis that follow-up certainty question was helpful in contingent valuation studies for environment and resource program.This conclusion may be of some reference value to contingent valuation practice.更多还原