【作者】 徐霄龙； 庞亮； 刘德辅；

【Author】 XU Xiaolong~1,PANG Liang~1,LIU Defu~2 (1.College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China; 2.Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China)

【机构】 中国海洋大学工程学院； 中国海洋大学海洋防灾研究所；

【摘要】 海工结构处于严峻的海洋环境中,特别是热带气旋影响海域,极端环境因素的联合作用往往导致结构的失效破坏。目前海工结构的设计大都是遵循相关规范中建议的传统方法,简单选取极端海况组合作为设计依据,难以合理反映热带气旋对结构的长期影响。采用数值模拟、概率分析、灰色预测交叉结合的方法,建立海工结构响应模型、多维复合极值分布模型、灰色马尔科夫链模型嵌套的体系。进行热带气旋风场诱发极端海况对结构影响的长期概率分析。计算结果可作为结构可靠度分析的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Offshore structure is in the severe sea states.Especially in the regions which influenced by tropical cyclones,the strong winds,surges and huge waves induced by storms will lead to the structure failures and make large losing.In the field of engineering design,the combination of wind,wave and current with some return period is selected according to the design code,and then the response analysis of structures will be performed.The influence of storm induced extreme sea environment factors on the offshore structure has not been considered reasonably.In this study,numerical simulation,probability analysis and prediction based on theory of grey system are used to propose a nested model for analyzing the influence of tropical cyclone on the offshore structure.The model is consisted of multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD),grey Markov chain model(GMCM) and structure dynamic response model.The nested model can be used in reliability analysis of offshore structures.更多还原