【作者】 孙东亮； 黄光团； 蒋军成； 张明广； 王志荣；

【Author】 SUN Dong-liang~1,Huang Guang-tuan~1,JIANG Jun-cheng~2,ZHANG Ming-guang~2,WANG Zhi-rong~2 (1.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Risk Assessment and Control on Chemical Process, School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China; 2.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban and Industrial Safety,Institute of Safety Engineering, College of Urban Construction and Safety Engineering,Nanjing University of Technology,Nanjing 210009,China)

【机构】 华东理工大学资源与环境工程学院,国家环境保护化工过程环境风险评价与控制重点实验室； 南京工业大学城市建设与安全工程学院,安全工程研究所,江苏省城市与工业安全重点实验室；

【摘要】 应用Monte-Carlo法,综合分析了罐方位、体积、间距与充装水平对球罐爆炸碎片撞击概率的影响。结果表明:3000次模拟可获得足够精度的撞击概率值;撞击概率随罐体积的增加而缓慢递增,随罐间距的增加而急剧衰减。通过数据拟合,获得了撞击概率模型,回归度较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 The influence of the target orientation and volume,relative distance from the source,the filling degree of source vessel on the probability of impact was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations.The research results showed that a number of 3000 simulations provided a good convergence for the impact probability,which increased slowly according to the target volume,and decreased rapidly with the distance.A prediction model of impact probability with high reliability was built by data fitting.更多还原