【作者】 陈诚； 何贵兵；

【机构】 浙江大学心理与行为科学系；

【摘要】 日常生活中的诸多行为结果均伴随以一定的时间延迟或不确定性而发生。一般认为,我们通过心理折扣(mental discounting)对此类结果形成主观效用。考虑到时间、概率折扣的相似性以及心理距离理论中时间、概率距离的统一性,我们提出,心理距离的产生可能是个体对未来或不确定结果作出价值折扣的内在机制。在实验1中,被试需完成主观时间距离、主观概率距离、主观现值与确定当量评定四类任务。结果显示,相较于客观延迟时间与兑赔率,主观时间、概率距离对个体主观现值、确定当量的拟合更为准确、简洁;主观时间距离、主观概率距离分别在客观延迟时间与主观现值、兑赔率与确定当量之间起中介作用;对未来结果给予更远心理距离评估的个体通常亦将不确定结果亦评定得更远,且有着更大程度的现值与确定值折扣。在实验2中,研究者操纵被试的心理距离定势,并探究其对心理距离与主观价值评估的影响。结果表明,在时间折扣任务中,相较于长时程或小概率事件启动材料,记忆短时程或大概率事件启动材料的被试将3个月后的事在主观上评定得更远,且对3个月后的750元予以更大程度的价值折扣。同时,上述结果模式亦存在于概率折扣任务中。据此我们认为,心理距离在未来结果主观现值以及不确定结果确定当量的形成过程中起有统一的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Many outcomes of daily decisions are time-delayed or with uncertainty.It is accepted that we form the utility of these outcomes through the process of mental discounting.Because of the similar anomalies between temporal and probability discounting and the integration of temporal and probability distance in psychological distance theory,we reasoned that the formation of psychological distance might be the common mechanism of value discounting.In experiment 1,participants were asked to make a series of estimation about temporal distance of future events,probability distance of uncertain events,present value of future gains and certainty equivalence of probable gains.The result indicated that,firstly,compared with objective time-delay and odd ratio,temporal distance and probability distance made better prediction toward present value of future gains and certainty equivalence of probable gains respectively.Secondly,temporal distance and probability distance mediated the relationship between time-delay and present value of future gains,and odd ratio and certainty equivalence of probable gains.Thirdly,those who viewed future events further away from now also treated odd events further away from certainty and exhibited larger degree of temporal and probability discounting.In experiment 2,we manipulated participants‘ psychological horizon set to explore its effect on estimation of psychological distance and equivalent value.As the result revealed,under time-discounting task,participants who memorized long-term or small-probability materials,but not those who memorized short-term or large-probability materials,rated the event 3months later further away from now,and discounted the value of 750 RMB received 3months later more.In addition,this pattern of impact also existed in probability discounting task.As a conclusion,the results above supported the idea that the generation of psychological distance might be essential in the process of mental discounting.更多还原