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风险决策是否基于心算过程?

Toward a Mental Aarithmetic Process in Risky Choices

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【作者】 饶俪琳刘潇楠李琦周媛梁竹苑陈曦孙红月周仁来李纾

【Author】 Lilin Rao~(1,3) Xiaonan Liu~(1,2,3) Qi Li~1,Yuan Zhou~1 Zhuyuan Liang~1 Xi Chen~2 Hongyue Sun~1 Renlai Zhou~2 Shu Li~1 1 Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science,Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China 2 State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neurosciences and Learning,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China

【机构】 中国科学院心理研究所行为科学实验室北京师范大学认知神经科学与学习国家重点实验室

【摘要】 主流的风险决策理论认为,风险决策就是选择一个数学期望最大的选项。为了检验风险决策是否基于计算过程,我们采用事件相关电位技术,比较了偏好决策和期望价值决策。结果表明,在进行期望价值决策时,计算难度影响ERP的晚期成分,而在进行偏好决策时,计算难度不影响该成分。与之相反,在进行偏好决策时,最小获益的幅度影响P300成分,而在进行期望价值决策时,最小获益的幅度不影响P300。我们的发现证明偏好决策并不是基于期望价值计算,为期望法则家族能否准确描述个体风险决策提出质疑。

【Abstract】 Mainstream theories of decision-making under risk suggest that risky decisions are made by choosing the option that offers the highest mathematical expectation.To test whether a risky choice is based on such a computation process,we conducted an event-related potential study by contrasting a preferential choice with an expected value choice.Results showed that the differences in computation difficulty,which was supposed to matter in a computation process,affected slow wave component only when participants were forced to choose the option that offered the highest expectation.The difference in magnitude of the minimum gains, which was supposed to matter in a heuristic process,affect P300 component only when participants were asked to choose the preferred option.Our finding provided neural evidence that the preferential choice was not based on an expectation computation,and thus raised the question of whether expectation theories can provide an adequate description of individual risky decisions.

【关键词】 风险决策期望计算启发式ERP
【Key words】 Decision-making under riskExpectation computationHeuristicERP
  • 【会议录名称】 增强心理学服务社会的意识和功能——中国心理学会成立90周年纪念大会暨第十四届全国心理学学术会议论文摘要集
  • 【会议名称】中国心理学会成立90周年纪念大会暨第十四届全国心理学学术会议
  • 【会议时间】2011-10-21
  • 【会议地点】中国陕西西安
  • 【分类号】B841
  • 【主办单位】中国心理学会
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