【作者】 张小宁； 赵俊；

【Author】 Xiaoning Zhang;Jun Zhao;Tongji University,School of Economic and Management;

【机构】 同济大学经济与管理学院；

【摘要】 本文首先运用条件价值评估法对北京市居民的车牌摇号行为进行抽象,然后提出了两阶段的收费模型:在摇号之前收取摇号参与费A;参与者通过摇号获得车牌的购买资格之后,再收取车牌购置费B;完成两次缴费之后参与者即可以获得车牌。接着在数据搜集方面,本文利用双边界二分调查法,进一步得到参与者对摇号参与费A以及车牌购置费B的不同支付意愿(AW,BW)的实际数据。最后运用最大似然方法估计参数,得到函数的具体形式,并计算出参与者获得车牌的可能性P与他们的支付意愿的组合(AW,BW)之间的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Simulating the behavior of car plate number lottery among Beijing residents based on the contingent valuation method(CVM), the thesis proposes a two-period charging model, namely the participation fee ‘A’ before the lottery and the purchase expenditure ‘B’ after acquiring the purchase qualification in the lottery. The participants will obtain the car plate after finishing the two periods of payment. The data will be collected through questionnaires based on the double-bounded dichotomous CVM method; then we can calculate the willingness to pay(AW, BW) of different participants’ referring to their ‘A’s and ‘B’s. Finally, the parameters will be calculated using the maximum likelihood method and so does the relationships of the participants between their possibilities ‘P’ of acquiring the plate in the end and their combinations of willingness to pay(AW, BW).更多还原