【作者】 刘静华； 贾仁安； 袁新发； 张南生； 涂国平；

【Author】 LIU Jinghua~1,JIA Renan~1,YUAN Xinfa~2,ZHANG Nansheng~3,TU Guoping~1 (1.Institute of System Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;2.Jiangxi Energy Office of Agriculture Bureau,Jiujiang 332000,China;3.Debang Pig Farm Corporation Jiujiang 330402,China)

【机构】 南昌大学系统工程研究所； 九江市农业局能源办； 德邦牧业有限公司；

【摘要】 德邦规模养殖生态经济区是国家战略《鄱阳湖生态经济区规划》产业区,是要求实现规模养殖和种植循环经济的开发区,是要求实现开发沼气能源减少污染物排放(节能减排)的低碳与生态产业区,是由大学、公司、农户、地方政府等共同参加的创新基地,此规模养种循环与节能减排系统是一个复杂系统.对此,创建系统动力学三步顶点赋权图分析法进行研究.首先,对实地发展进行了深入分析,确定系统发展中的核心变量的因果链集合,产生三个正因果链构成的规模养殖猪利润增长正反馈环,四个正因果链构成的猪粪资源开发利用增长正反馈环,揭示现行系统发展的优势;产生三个正因果链和一个负因果链构成的猪尿污染制约负反馈环揭示系统发展存在的问题.接着,分类对2005年至2009年1-12月份17种猪的猪粪和猪尿及其中的氮磷钾资源进行了实际测量和计算,并给出了苗猪、种猪和肉猪的每头利润计算等公式,建立了两个增长正反馈环和一个制约负反馈环构成的2005-2009年规模养殖生态经济区增长制约顶点赋权图,定量揭示现行系统发展的优势和存在的问题.最后,围绕两个增长正反馈环和一个制约负反馈环的内涵再提出系统可持续发展实现规模养种循环与节能减排的管理对策,三步顶点赋权法的顶点值建立的仿真模型和各变量方程,分别对德邦牧业规模养殖生态系统在2005-2020年时段系统实施沼气综合利用、规模养殖和猪粪综合利用三项对策工程前后系统状况进行情景仿真,定量论证了所制定的管理对策的科学性及实施的必要性.更多还原

【Abstract】 Debang Pig Farming eco-economics zone with the scale livestock breeding is an industrial zone for Poyang lake eco-economics zone planning of national strategy.It is a circular economic development zone to be realized scale livestock breeding and scale planting.It is also a low carbon and eco-industrial zone of biogas energy for decreasing pollutant discharge (energy saving and emission reduction) and an innovation base built up by the cooperation of university,company,farmer,local government etc.This kind of circulation system with farming scale and planting scale and energy saving and emission reduction is a complex system.To study this system,Nanchang University created a Three-Steps Vertex Weighted Causal Diagram Dynamics Analysis Method.First,this paper analyzes in depth real development and determines core variable causal chain set of system development.It results in profit growth positive feedback loop of scale pig farming with the scale made of three positive causal chain and pig feces resources exploitation growth positive feedback loop made of four positive causal chain,which brings to light advantage of system development.At the same time the paper brings up a pig pee pollution restriction negative feedback loop of three positve causal chains and one negative causal chain which reveals the problem of system development.Secondly, Nanchang universty tests and calculates feces and pee and nitrogen,phosphorum,potassium of feces and pee of 17 kinds of pigs each month from 2005 to 2009.we get per pig profit formulation of each pig profit of small pig,breeding pig and pig.It builds growth and confine vertex weighted diagram made of two growth positive feedback loops and one confine positive feedback loop.It quantificationally reveals advantages and disadvantages of system development.Last,by connote of two growth positive feedback loops and one confine positive feedback loop,the paper brings up sustainable development management of circulation system of farming scale and planting scale and energy saving and emission reduction.Based on three-steps vertex Weighted Causal Diagrams vertex value,we bulid the simulation model and variable equation,simulates the system behavior variation caused by the impletation of three management strategies which are to bulid biogas project,to scale breeding,to carry out pig feces ulitility.The result of simulation quantitatively proves scientific and necessary of management policies.更多还原