【作者】 许春青； 田益祥； 马永开；

【Author】 XU ChunQing,TIAN YiXiang,MA YongKai (School of Management University of Electronic and Science Technology of China,Chengdu,China,610051)

【机构】 电子科技大学管理学院；

【摘要】 自2005年7月汇率体制改革以来,人民币汇率对房价产生了很大的影响。在适应性预期假设的基础上,利用自回归分布滞后模型定量地研究了这一影响。脉冲响应分析表明,在一段政策因素相对平稳的时期内,人民币汇率每一次变动对房价的影响存在7个月的滞后,此后震荡衰减,大约30个月后影响基本消失;人民币汇率每升值1个百分点,在此后的30个月内,对房价增长率的总贡献为0.97个百分点。更多还原

【Abstract】 The exchange rate of RMB has great influence on housing price after exchange rate system reform since July 2005.On the basis of the adaptive expectation theory,this paper quantitatively studies this effect using the autoregressive distribution lag model.Impulse response analyzes show that the effect of REM exchange rate on housing price lags seven months in a period of relatively stable policies,then attenuates quaveringly in the form of cosine function and disappears about 30 months later.The RMB exchange rate increases one percent point,the contribution to the growth rate of housing price is 0.97 percent points totally in thirty months.更多还原