【作者】 郭荣娟； 司钦如； 李瑜； 肖丰； 李萍； 司登奎；

【Author】 GUO Rongjuan;SI Qinru;LI Yu;XIAO Feng;LI Ping;SI Deng kui;ShangQiu in HeNan ShangQiu Normal University Sports Institute;Korean Yongin University Sports Institute, Korean Yongin University;Shang Qiu Normal College Public Physical Education in HeNan ShangQiu;ShanDong QingDao Ocean University of China School of Economics;

【机构】 商丘市商丘师范学院体育学院； 韩国龙仁大学体育学院； 商丘市商丘师范学院公共体育教学部； 中国海洋大学经济学院；

【摘要】 低碳生态体育城市之前较少提到,国内除上海在2002年提出了把上海建设成为国际知名体育城市的口号外,鲜有政府提出体育城市建设的口号。"十八届三中全会"报告提出坚持把建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会作为加快转变经济发展方式的重要着力点,深入贯彻节约资源和保护环境基本国策,节约能源,发展循环经济,﹍﹍走可持续发展之路。体育产业是一个蕴藏着巨大商机的新兴朝阳产业。随着新一轮全球产业布局调整,体育产业将成为21世纪四大产业之一。我国体育在经历工业化体育、城市商业化体育后,发展"生态体育"、构建"生态体育城市"已经成为后续发展的重要趋势。同时,发达国家体育产业发展证明体育产业是低碳经济和绿色经济的重要产业。本文以"数据采集—投入产出—绩效测评—指标设计—差距分析—路径选择"为主线,运用B/S、Power Designer、SQL工具和数据挖掘等技术,创建生态体育经济监测数据库;构建指标体系、创建投入产出表,并以此利用数据包络法(DEA)构建影响因素的Tobit、Probit模型;同时基于制定的发展生态体育政策,利用BP神经网络模型对其绩效进行预测,从而有效把握生态体育所带来溢出效应的动态趋势。研究发现(1)影响生态体育发展绩效的主要因素是体育产业结构分布不合理,具体体现在一些高能耗、高污染和高排放的"三高"产业;(2)在样本选择期间内,河南生态体育发展绩效指数呈上升趋势,且该上升趋势的主要原因是技术进步指数的提高。但技术进步指数上升速度不快,表明技术水平有进一步提高的空间;(3)通过非线性BP神经网络模型预测,发现在2014—2020年期间,生态体育发展绩效有上升趋势,但是在短期内技术效率指数变化不明显,而技术进步指数变化却有显著增大趋势,说明要想达到发展生态体育城市目标,技术进步是解决短期碳排放绩效的有效途径。(4)经济的发展水平和重要科技成果数都能显著促进纯技术效率的提高,体育文化氛围和体育从业人数有利于促进技术进步指数和综合效率的提高,社会基础设施水平对综合效率有促进作用,但作用不明显。单位GDP能耗和从业人数却不利于纯技术效率的提高,这主要与经济发展方式有关。因此,在经济区构建、体育强国迈进的进程中,加大对低碳体育产业的投入与引进,是保障体育城市建设与规划不可或缺的重要手段。当前,我国大部分地区出现环境质量持续下降现象,因此环境保护应当受到高度重视。创建生态体育城市,首先是因为生态体育是环境福利性产业,能够和谐地理环境和生态环境的统一,从而有效转化环境对人民生活健康的保证;其次,生态体育是一个友好环境产业,能够将人对环境的作用再反作用于人来,促进实现"人——环境——健康"的有效统一;再次,可根据自身发展特色,将其建设成为多元社群型的体育,各民族、地区和各年龄段人群都可参与,能有实现全民健身的多元化;第四,生态体育是人文创新型体育,能够同时表达人对价值的认识,同时也体现了体育健身的娱乐性、方便性和体验性,将文化创意纳入其中,通过人们对健身的消费、体验与互动充分体现出创新的内涵,第五,生态体育是低碳体育,通过体育产业来约束人们的消费方式,并从宏观层面做到环境、经济的科学发展。因此,发展生态体育产业有利于调整优化产业结构和转变经济发展方式,同时创建生态体育城市不仅能够从个体层面提高居民身体素质,还能从中观层面引领居民生活、消费方式向绿色、生态的形式转化,更能从宏观层面优化河南省产业结构,促进河南经济发展具有生态化、低碳化的特点,从而实现河南省经济的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。此外,创建生态体育城市也是贯彻落实《中共中央关于十二五规划建议》以及党和国家领导人有关发展可持续发展的重要讲话精神,实践科学发展观,科学制定可持续发展规划的现实需要。更多还原

【Abstract】 Low carbon ecological sports city is less mentioned before, in addition to domestic was proposed in 2002 by the Shanghai building Shanghai into an international well-known sports slogans outside the city, with little government sports slogans in city construction are put forward. Report put forward "the third plenary session of the eighteenth" adhere to the construction of resource saving and environment-friendly society as an important focus of speed up the transformation of the pattern of economic development, further implement the basic national policy of resource conservation and environment protection, energy conservation, the development of circular economy and ﹍﹍ walk the road of sustainable development. Sports industry is an emerging sunrise industry contains huge business opportunities. As a new round of global industrial layout adjustment, the sports industry will become one of the four major industries in the 21 st century. Sports after industrialization, the urban commercial sports in China, the development of "ecological sports" and constructing "ecological sports city" has become the important trend of further development. At the same time, the development of sports industry in developed countries prove that the sports industry is important industry in low carbon economy and green economy. This paper, taking "data collection, input and output, performance evaluation, index design, gap analysis, path selection" as the main line, using B/S, Power Designer, SQL tools and data mining technology, to create ecological sports economic monitoring database; Build the index system of input-output table, create, and use data envelopment method(DEA) to build Tobit, Probit model of affecting factors; Based on the development of ecological sports policy at the same time, using BP neural network model to predict its performance, thus effectively grasp the dynamic trend of spillover effects caused by the ecological sports. The study found that(1) the main factors influencing the development of ecological sports performance is distribution of the sports industry structure is unreasonable, concrete embodiment in some high energy consumption, high pollution and high emissions of "three highs" industry;(2) during the period of sample selection, the henan ecological sports development performance index is on the rise, and the rise of the main reason is that the improvement of technology index. But technological progress index rose slowly, it shows that technical level there is room to further improve;(3) through nonlinear BP neural network model to predict, and found that during the period of 2014-2020, the ecological sports development performance has a rising trend, but the technical efficiency index change is not obvious in the short term, while technological progress index change is a significant increasing trend, that if you want to achieve development of ecological sports city, technological progress is the effective way to solve the short-term carbon emissions performance.(4) economic development level and the number of major scientific and technological achievements can significantly improve the pure technical efficiency, physical culture and sports workers promote technological progress index and comprehensive efficiency, social role to the improvement of the comprehensive efficiency of infrastructure level, but the effect is not obvious. Energy consumption per unit GDP and employment in good for pure technical efficiency, this is mainly related to the pattern of economic development. Therefore, in the economic zone in the process of building, sports power, increase the investment in low carbon sports industry and introduction,is the indispensable important means to ensure that urban construction and planning. At present, our country continues to decline phenomenon appears in many parts of the environment quality, and environmental protection should be highly attention. Create ecological sports city, first, because the ecological sports is the environment of welfare industry, can the harmonious the unification of the geographical environment and ecological environment, thus the guarantee of effective transformation of people’s living environment health; Secondly, ecological sports industry is a friendly environment, to people adversely on the role of the environment and to promote effective unification of "man- environment- health"; Again, according to the characteristics of its own development, will become a diverse community sports, the construction of all ethnic groups, regions and all ages can participate in, can realize the diversity of national fitness; Fourth, ecological sports is humanistic innovative, able to express people’s perception of value, and also embodies the sports fitness entertainment, convenience and experiential, will include the cultural creativity, through the consumption of fitness, the experience and the interaction fully embody the connotation of innovation, the fifth, the ecological sports is low carbon, through the sports industry to restrain people’s consumption patterns, environment, economy from the macro level and scientific development. Therefore, the development of ecological sports industry is conducive to adjusting and optimizing industrial structure and transformation of the pattern of economic development in henan province, at the same time create henan city ecological sports can not only from the individual level to improve the residents’ physical quality, but also from the meso level lead residents, consumption way of life to the form of green, ecology, can optimize the industrial structure in henan province from the macroscopic level, promote economic development of henan has the characteristics of ecology, low carbon, so as to realize the sustainable development of economy in henan province has important practical significance. In addition, creating ecological sports city is carrying out the advice about the 12 th five-year plan of the central committee of the communist party of China and the sustainable development of the party and state leaders about development important speech spirit, practice the scientific outlook on development, scientific development sustainable development planning of realistic need更多还原