【作者】 王学良； 余田野； 朱传林； 杜良敏； 刘学春；

【Author】 (1.Lightning Protection Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430074,P.R.China;2.Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074,P.R.China) Wang Xueliang 1,Yu Tianye 1,Zhu Chuanlin 1,Du Liangmin 2,Liu XueChun 1

【机构】 湖北省防雷中心； 武汉区域气候中心；

【摘要】 为研究中部五省雷暴日时空分布特征,以满足雷电灾害防御工作需要,利用1961～2010年中部五省85个气象台站雷暴日资料,采用小波分析和EOF分析等数理统计方法,对中部五省雷暴日时空分布特征进行了统计分析。结果表明:近50年来,初雷日期和终雷日期没有提前或推迟的趋势,年平均雷暴日整体呈下降趋势,夏季雷暴日的减少是影响年雷暴日减少的主要原因。中部五省平均年雷暴日41天,其中春季占全年雷暴日的30.3%,夏季占57.6%,秋季占8.5%,冬季占3.6%;五省平均初雷日期在3月1或2日,从南至北初雷日期依次推迟,南北最大相差近3个月;终雷日期在10月4或5日,终雷日期是南晚北早,南北最大相差近2个月;雷暴日月变化曲线呈双峰型,主峰在7月,次峰在4月;通过小波分析,年平均雷暴日主要有11年、17年和6年、4年左右的周期振荡;长江以北地区,年平均雷暴日在40天以下,20天以上,属多雷暴地区;长江以南地区,年平均雷暴日在40天以上,属于高雷区或强雷区,其中赣南和湘南少部分地区年平均雷暴日在60天以上,属强雷区。根据EOF分析,将五省年平均雷暴日空间分布划分为:一致型、南北反相型、梅雨型和局地型等4种类型。年平均雷暴日整体呈下降趋势的原因,可能与夏季风的强弱和大气环流突变有关,具体原因有待进一步研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to meet the need for lightning disaster preventing,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the five central China provinces thunderstorm days were researched depending on the thunderstorm days data of the central 85 meteorological stations which recorded from 1961 to 2010,and were analyzed by using mathematical statistics method,such as the wavelet analysis and the EOF analysis.The results showed that,in the past 50 years of the five central provinces,the average date of the first thunderstorm and the last thunderstorm had no tendency of advance or delay,but the number of annual mean thunderstorm days showed a whole trend of decline,the primary cause of the decrease of annual thunderstorm numbers was the reducing of thunderstorm days during summer.The average annual number of thunderstorm days was 41,which accounts for the annual spring thunderstorm was 30.3%,summer was occupied 57.6%,autumn was 8.5%,and winter accounted for 3.6%.The average date of the first thunderstorm occurred on March 1 st or March 2 nd,and postponed from South to North in turn,and the biggest disparity could be nearly 3 months.The last thunderstorm happened on October 4 th or the 5 th,the average date of the last thunderstorm in South ended later than in North,and the maximum time difference could up to 2 months.The monthly variation of thunderstorms took on a bimodal curve,which the main peak appeared in July and the secondary peak appeared in April.By the wavelet analysis,the cycle of the average annual thunderstorm days was 11 years,17 years,6 years,and 4 years respectively.The North area of the Yangtze River,where the average annual number of thunderstorm days was between 20 and 40,is the More Thunderstorm Happening Region.The South area of the Yangtze River,where the average thunderstorm days were more than 40,belonged to the High Thunderstorm Happening Region or the Strong Thunderstorm Happening Region,among which in some South areas of Jiangxi and Hunan province,the average thunderstorm days is more than 60,which belonged to the Strong Thunderstorm Happening Region.According to the EOF analysis,the space distribution of the average number of thunderstorm days were divided into 4 types:the consistent type,the North and South inverting type,the plum rain type and the local type.The reasons,which caused the whole decline trend of the annual mean thunderstorm days,may be associated with the strength of the summer monsoon and the mutation of atmospheric circulation and the specific reasons remains intensive study.更多还原