【作者】 李丽纯； 陈家金； 陈惠； 杨凯； 林晶； 潘卫华；

【Author】 LI Li-chun, CHEN Jia-jin, CHEN Hui, YANG Kai, LIN Jing, PAN Wei-hua (FuJian Institute of meteorological Science, Fuzhou, 350001)

【机构】 福建省气象科学研究所；

【摘要】 根据福建省1993～2009年福建省67个县市的马铃薯逐年单产资料,通过线性滑动平均法对数据进行处理,选取歉年平均减产率、歉年减产率变异系数和减产率发生概率作为风险评估指标,对福建省马铃薯农业气象灾害进行风险区划。结果表明:福建省综合风险指数介于0.02～0.70,大部县市综合风险指数介于0.12～0.70,占95.5%。福州以南沿海县市、北部县浦城及西南角武平县风险较高,马铃薯生长发育期农业气象灾害发生较为频繁,对产量影响较大。研究结果可为马铃薯的合理布局及防灾减灾提供决策依据,促进马铃薯的安全生产。更多还原

【Abstract】 The risk regionalization of agrometeorological disasters of potato in Fujian Province was conducted, using such indexes as average decreasing rate during disaster years, variation coefficient of decreasing rate during disaster years, probability occurrence of decreasing rate as risk regionalization stands, based on data of the potato yield of 67 counties from 1993 to 2009. The data was processed by method of linear sliding average means. The results showed the synthetic risk index of counties in Fujian ranged from 0.02 to 0.70, and 95.5% of the indexes of all the counties in Fujian were between 0.12 and 0.70. Risk of counties south of Fuzhou region, Pucheng in the north of Fujian, and Wuping in the southwest corner were higher, and agrometeorological disasters influencing the yield of potato during the growth period were more frequently happened. The result can offer the decision basis for the rational distribution and disaster prevention and reduction of potato to promote its safety production.更多还原