【作者】 马晓群； 张宏群； 陈晓艺； 吴文玉； 许莹； 李龙；

【Author】 Ma Xiaoqun1 ,zhang Hongqun1 ,Chen Xiaoyi 1,Wu wenyu1 ,XuYing1, li Long2 (1Anhui Meteorological Institute/Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing, Hefei, 230031, 2Xuancheng Meteorological Bureau,242000)

【机构】 安徽省气象科学研究所/安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室； 宣城市气象局；

【摘要】 为了给农业生产制定防灾减灾决策提供依据,以安徽省冬小麦干旱为研究对象,从致灾因子、承灾体和孕灾环境三方面选取区划因子,进行指标数据的标准化、栅格化和等级划分;采用层次分析法确定各层次指标权重,分别建立了安徽省冬小麦全生育期和抽穗灌浆期干旱强度风险、干旱敏感性和脆弱性,以及抗旱能力评估模型,并以全生育期和抽穗灌浆期两级指标得到冬小麦干旱风险区划图,用安徽省耕地数据掩膜(mask)得相应的耕地意义的干旱风险区划图,并进行了分区评述。结果表明,安徽省冬小麦干旱风险程度可划分为4大区6个亚区,较好地反映了安徽省冬小麦农业干旱风险的分布特点和区域差异。安徽省冬小麦主产区淮北平原是冬小麦干旱风险最大的区域,其次是沿淮和江淮地区,南部干旱风险很小。作物对干旱的敏感性、环境的脆弱性以及抗灾能力可以显著加重或减轻冬小麦干旱风险的程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 To provide a basis for disaster prevention and reduction strategies of agricultural production, taking winter wheat drought in Anhui Province as subjects, the zoning factors were chosen from three respects of the hazard factors, hazard-affected bodies and hazard-pregnant environment. By standardizing, rasterizing, and grading of indices data, then respectively deciding of weight of every layers and factors using Analytic Hierarchy Process, the assessment models of the intensity of drought risk during whole growth period and heading filling period of winter wheat, the sensitivity to drought, vulnerability and the drought resistant ability of winter wheat were established. By two levels indices of the drought risk during whole growth period and heading filling period of winter wheat, the distribution maps of the drought risk for winter wheat with the scale of kilometer per grid were formed, and then covered with farmland digital mask, the zoning map of drought risk for winter wheat with farmland meaning in Anhui province was finally established.Results showed that the drought risk dgrees for winter wheat could divide into four regions and 6 sub-regions , which well reflects the distribution characteristics and rigenal difference of drought risk for winter wheat in Anhui Province. The area of the highest risk of winter wheat drought was locate in the plan of north of the Huaihe River and was main producing rigion of winter wheat; the second was locate in the area along the Huaihe River, then the area between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River; the drought risk of winter wheat was very low in the southern area of Anhui province. Drought risk degrees for winter wheat were markedly raised or reduced by the sensitivity to drought, vulnerability and the drought resistant ability of winter whaet.更多还原