【作者】 王新萍； 杨青； 丁裕国； 姚俊强；

【Author】 Wang Xinping1,2,Yang Qing1,Yao Junqiang1(1.Institute of Desert Meteorology,Urumqi 830002,China;2.College of Mathematics and System Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

【机构】 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所； 新疆大学数学与系统科学学院； 南京信息工程大学；

【摘要】 本文将Barnett关于大尺度气候场"气候状态向量"和"气候质点"的概念引入到新疆北疆地区气候变化规律的研究中,在对各种气候要素主成分分析的基础上,采用方差最大准则下的正交旋转因子分析方法,探讨气候状态向量在新疆北疆地区气候振动研究中应用的可行性和效果,同时运用统计检验聚类方法(CAST聚类)得到了新疆北疆地区主要气候要素的空间分布特征。文中对新疆北疆地区的气候状态向量的气候学意义及其时间变化规律作了详细的分析,不仅得到了一些该地区主要气候型的变化周期,特别是"气候质点"的运动轨迹所显示的类似于相空间轨线的准循环振荡特性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the Barnett’s idea for climate state vector(CSV) and climate particle(CP) in large scale fields of climatology is introduced to studying properties of climatic variation of North Xinjiang.After using principal component analysis(PCA),the method of factor analysis made by means of orthogonal rotation according to maximum variance criterion is used to verify the feasibility and effect of CSV in research of climatic change for North Xinjiang,which is used to verify the feasibility and effect of CSV in research of climatic change for large scale.The climatological significance and the variation law and characteristic of CSV in North Xinjiang are analyzed in detail,the primary periodicities for the main climate types are obtained as well.Especially,the quasi-cycle vibration characteristic of climatic variation is represented by the motion locus charts of CP,which can reflect the characteristic of climatic variation for the main climate types in this area to a certain degree.更多还原