【作者】 万信； 王强； 郭慧； 贾建英；

【Author】 Wan Xin1,2 Wang Qiang1,3 Guo Hui1,3 Jia Jianying1,2(1.Institute of Arid Meteorology CMA,Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China;2.Northwest Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020,China;3.Gansu Meteorological Bureau,730020,China)

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室； 西北区域气候中心； 甘肃省气象局；

【摘要】 利用1963—2007年44a气象和粮食产量资料,研究甘肃区域主要粮食产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明:甘肃降水异常的敏感区主要在河西中西部的玉门和陇中的定西一带,河西与河东过渡地带是甘肃气温异常的敏感区。甘肃春小麦在河西的酒泉一带变幅最大,为最敏感区;陇中盆地是甘肃冬春小麦产量变化的最敏感区;玉米产量变化最敏感区主要在河西西部;糜子产量在河西走廊东部和陇东高原最敏感;谷子敏感区在河西部分地方和陇南山区部分地方。作物产量变化的敏感区域与降水、气温异常的敏感区相对应较好,甘肃粮食产量对气候变化存在着明显响应。典型敏感区春小麦单产在1982年和1999年附近存在突变,1982年之前处于属于偏欠阶段,1982-1999年间偏丰阶段,1999年后再次转入偏欠。该区域春小麦产量对降水变化的响应很敏感,对气温较敏感。更多还原

【Abstract】 By investigating the Sensitivity area of crop response on climate change in GANSU Area during 1963—2007yr,by applying wavelet and EOF(empirical orthogonal function) analysis,to make clear the characters of the response.Results showed that the sensitivity areas of responses of precipitation were yumen city in west of the Yellow River and dingxi city in middle of Gansu Province,and the sensitivity area of responses of temperature was the transition between east and west of the Yellow River.The most sensitivity area of spring wheat was Jiuquan district in west of the Yellow River,sensitivity area of spring and winter wheat yield was longzhong Basin.The most sensitivity area of maize yield was west in west of the Yellow River.The most sensitivity areas of broom corn millet yield were east in west of the Yellow River and longdong Plateau.The most sensitivity areas of millet yield were parts of west of the Yellow River and longnan Mountain.This showed crop yield responded obviously on climate change in Gansu Province.The marked change points,found by Petitt and checked by moving T-test,were 1982yr and 1999yr by which three phases appear obviously divided;the wheat output was lower before 1982yr,higher during 1982-1999yr,again lower after 1999yr.Correspondingly,high yielding phase marched the wet and warm climate times,low high yielding phase marched the dry and cold climate.更多还原