【作者】 刘明春； 史志娟； 秦三杰；

【Author】 LIU Ming-chun1.2,SHI Zhi-juan3,QIN San-jie3(1.Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA,Lanzhou 730020,China;2.Agrometeorological Experiment Station of Wuwei Meteorological Bureau,Wuwei 733000,China;3.Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Lanzhou 730020,China;)

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室； 甘肃省武威市气象局农业气象试验站； 甘肃省气象局；

【摘要】 基于石羊河流域年总径流量和西营河径流量资料和祁连山南、北坡气象资料,分析了近49a来石羊河流域径流量变化趋势、突变、年内分配特征及与气温、降水、蒸发的相关关系。结果表明:近49a来石羊河流域上游产流区径流量均呈减少趋势,冬、夏季减少趋势大于秋、春季;90年代径流量衰减明显,特别是年、春、夏季出现明显突变;年径流量补给主要以汛期雨水补给为主,雨水补给比例在逐渐增加;流域内降水量呈增加趋势,但增幅较小。气温呈上升趋势,蒸发呈增大趋势。流域年总径流量与6～9月降水量呈显著正相关,与7、8月气温、蒸发呈显著、极显著负相关。汛期气温的升高且伴随着蒸发的增大削弱了降水量增加造成的流量增加。建立了可用于预测汛期(6-8月)和年径流量的数学模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzed the correlation of runoff variation with temperature,precipitation and evaporation over past 49 years based on hydrological data of Shiyang river basin and Xiying river and meteorological data in south and north sides of Qilian mountain.The results show that runoff of water flow producing region in upper reaches of Shiyang river basin lessened in recent 49 years,and the trend is greater in winter and summer than in spring and autumn.Furthermore reduction of runoff is significant over 1990s,especially during annual period,spring and summer.Annual runoff mainly depends on precipitation supply in flood period and proportion of runoff supplied by precipitation is increasing.In the river basin precipitation,temperature and evaporation tend to increase.Runoff is positively correlated with precipitation from June to September but negatively with temperature and evaporation from July to August.Rising temperature and evaporation cancel out the contribution of precipitation to runoff in flood period.Finally,we established a mathematical model which can be used to forecast flood period’s(from June to August) and annual runoff variation.更多还原