【作者】 谭方颖； 王建林； 宋迎波；

【Author】 TAN Fang-ying,WANG Jian-lin,SONG Ying-bo(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081)

【机构】 国家气象中心；

【摘要】 利用华北平原1961-2005年逐日平均气温、最高、最低气温和降水资料,从强度和频率两方面对比分析了华北平原1961-1991年(Ⅰ阶段)和1992-2005年(Ⅱ阶段)的高温、低温、干旱、洪涝及暴雨灾害事件发生频率和强度的空间变化特征。结果表明:年平均气温在1992年发生变暖突变,气候变暖使得华北平原北部、东部大部分地区高温频率、强度增大,南部减小;低温频率、强度在整个研究区域内减小明显,河北西南部、河南东部以及山东半岛频率减小幅度较大,北部低温强度减小幅度大于南部;不同等级旱灾的发生频率在整个华北平原都有所增大,北部尤其明显,涝灾发生频率增大的区域主要在东部和南部;北京以北、山东中部以及河南大部分地区暴雨发生频率在气候变暖后增加。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the daily value dataset of mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2005 in the North China Plain,and the special variation characteristics of high/low temperature,drought,water-logging and rainstorm were studied.On the basis,that the area get warming abruptly in 1992,the frequency and intensity of the factors aforementioned were compared between the period of 1992-2005 and 1961-1991.The result recommended that,the frequency and intensity of high temperature increased in the most part of northern and eastern North China Plain and decreased in the south of the area.The frequency and intensity of low temperature decreased over the whole region.The frequency decreased more in southwest Hebei,eastern Henan and Shandong peninsula.The decreasing amplitude of intensity in the north was greater than that of in the south.The frequency of drought in degrees increased in the whole area,especially in the north.The frequency and intensity of water-logging increased primarily in southern and eastern North China Plain.The days of rainstorm increased in areas north of Beijing,the middle of Shandong and the most part of Henan after climate warming.更多还原