【作者】 曲金华； 蔡哲； 谭桂容； 孙力；

【Author】 Cai Zhe1,2 Tan Guirong 2 Sun Li3 Qu Jinhua3 (1.Jinan Meteorological Observatory,Jinan,Shandong 250002;2.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044;3.Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province,Changchun,Jilin 130062)

【机构】 吉林省气象科学研究所； 济南市气象台； 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室；

【摘要】 利用1960-2000年吉林省45个气象站的月平均气温和降水资料,以及松花江辽河流域56个水文站的逐月径流量资料,统计分析了该地区41年来地表径流变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近41年松辽流域地表径流呈现减少趋势,并且递减方向为自南向北;1960、1970年代以及1990年代后期径流变化波动较大。吉林省地表径流量对气温、降水变化的响应较明显,表现出较强的相关性,并且有一定的滞后性;在分析主要江河流域径流量与气象要素变化相关关系基础上,建立了流域地表径流量与气象要素之间的统计关系模型,对相应流域地表径流量的变化进行预测评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 In terms of the monthly data of rainfall and temperature from 45 meteorological stations in Jilin Province and the monthly runoff data of 56 hydrological stations in Songhuajiang and Liaohe basin from 1960 to 2000,it is explored that the surface runoff change and the response of surface water resources to climate change.The results showed that the annual runoff tended to decrease from south to north during the past 41 years.There are several changes for the runoff change during the 1960s,1970s as well as the late 1990s.It is obvious that the characters of space distribution of the temperature and precipitation.The correlativity is clear between the runoff and climate change.It is also obvious that the responses with a certain lag.The statistics assessment model is established according to the relationship between the surface runoff and the meteorological elements so that the change of the surface runoff can be forecasted and evaluated on the basis of the meteorological elements’ change.更多还原