【作者】 孙兆彬； 陶燕； 安兴琴； 侯青； 李栋梁；

【Author】 Sun Zhaobin12 Tao Yan3 An Xingqin2 Hou Qing2 Li Dongliang1 1.College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;3.College of Earth and Environmental Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000

【机构】 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院； 中国气象科学研究院； 兰州大学资源环境学院；

【摘要】 采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了长期趋势、"星期几效应"及气象因子等混杂因素的影响,分析了2001-2005年兰州市四个季节PM10与呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的暴露-反应关系,并建立了单污染物模型和多污染物模型。结果表明,总人群的相对危险度(RR)具有显著的季节变化。单污染物模型中,当PM10日均浓度每升高一个四分位间距(IQR)时,在春季、夏季、秋季、冬季总人群呼吸系统疾病日入院人数分别增加3.3%、1.4%、3.6%、4.0%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using a semi-parametric generalized additive model(GAM) to analyze the exposure-response relationship between ambient particulate matter pollution and daily respiratory hospital visits from 2001 to 2005 in Lanzhou after controlling long time trend,the "day of week" effect and confounding meteorological factors in different seasons.Single-pollutant models and three-pollutant models were built.There were marked seasonal variations for RR.In single-pollutant models,a IQR concentration increase in PM10 was associated with 3.3%、1.4%、3.6%、4.0% increase for total population in spring,summer,autumn and winter.更多还原