【作者】 郭金强； 王肖娟； 赵俊荣； 魏勇； 朱蓉慧； 安冬亮； 危常州；

【Author】 Guo Jinqiang1,Wang Xiaojuan2,ZhaoJunrong1 et al.(1.Meteorological Bureau of Shihhotze,2.Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology Agriculture ofXinjiang Bingtuan,Shihhotze University,Xinjiang Shihhotze 832003)

【机构】 新疆石河子气象局； 石河子大学新疆兵团绿洲生态农业重点实验室；

【摘要】 根据石河子地区3个气象站近49年(1961-2009)逐月日照时数资料,建立石河子地区年日照时数序列,利用3年滑动平均、一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall、灰色预测等方法,全面分析石河子地区近49年来日照时数变化的基本特征。结果表明:年日照时数呈现增加趋势,其变化的倾向率为6.9h/10a;年日照时数近49年来极低值出现在1987年,最高值出现在1961年;春季、夏季和秋季日照时数呈增加趋势,但是秋季变化趋势不明显,未能通过显著性水平检验;冬季日照时数呈减少趋势,其变化倾向率为-32h/10a。年日照时数20世纪70年代以来年日照时数在1974年发生了突变,之后年日照时数逐渐减少,到1994年年日照时数出现增加趋势。建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并对该模型进行验证,预测结果值得信赖,可以利用该模型对石河子地区的年日照时数进行预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Sunshine hour is the most intuitionistic representation of radiation quantum.The change of sunshine hours affects the growth of plant,animal and the anthropogenic activity.In this paper,the series of annual sunshine hours in the Shihezi Area,Xinjiang,China,are developed using the sunshine hours data from 8 meteoro2logical stations in the Shihezi Area during the period of 1961-2009.The basic features of sunshine hours are analyzed using the methods of 3-year moving average,linear regression,Mann-Kendall statistic,grey forecast,etal.The main results are as follows:(1) The annual sunshine hours in the area is increasing at the trend rate of 6.9h /10 a.This kind of tendency appears mainly in spring,summer and autumn and the trend rates are 18.5h/10a、17.9h/10a and 2.7h/10a,respectively.However,the kind of tendency in winter is decreasing and the trend rates of it is-32 h /10 a,respectively.(2) The annual sunshine hours in Shihezi Area can be classified into three stages and the years with the most and least sunshine hours occurred in 1961 and 1987,respectively.The fluctuation of autumn sunshine hours is not significant.However,the oscillation of summer and autumn ones is complex.May be it is because the summer rainless days have a downward trend.The downward trend of winter is probably due to dust-floating increasing in the atmosphere because large amount of coal has been consume by human being.(3) The results of Mann-Kendall statistic revealed that the decreas and increase of the annual sunshine hour was an abrupt phenomenon and it happened around 1974and 1994,respectively.The predict amount of sunshine hours grey dynamic model established,it is available for predict amount of sunshine hours in Shihezi Area更多还原