【作者】 陈胤华；

【Author】 Chen Yinhua(Dongyang Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Dongyang Zhejiang 322100)

【机构】 东阳市气象局；

【摘要】 本文引进了Cucconi,O.提出的非参数统计检验法,先构建三种不同类别的理想时间序列,检验该方法在突变检测方面的能力,得到了理想的结果。然后,将其应用于东阳和金华两地月降水和温度资料的检测分析。本文研究表明,相对于ApEn法等,Cucconi法计算相对简单;得到的结果相对稳定,因滑动窗口设置引起突变漂移问题不明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the Cucconi rank test is used,firstly for three types of ideal time sequences,to detect the abrupt changes,which indicate that the test method is capable of distinguishing between different series.And then it is applied to the observation data of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Dongyang(58558) and Jinhua(58549).It is shown that,compared with the methods such as ApEn etc.,the Cucconi test is relatively simple and the results are relatively stable.更多还原