【作者】 谢炯光； 纪忠萍； 谷德军； 胡丽甜；

【Author】 XIE JiongGuang 1,JI Zhongping 1 GU Dejun2,HU litian 1 (1 Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou,510080,China,(2 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,and Key Open Laboratory for Tropical Monsoon,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510080)

【机构】 广州中心气象台； 广州热带海洋气象研究所；

【摘要】 长时间连续暴雨是极端灾害事件之一,它的成因及预测历来为气象工作者所关注。本文利用1961-2008年广东省86站逐日降水及雨型资料,对影响广东的长连续暴雨过程的气候特征及成因进行了统计和相关分析研究。结果表明:长连续暴雨大都出现在90年代以后,具有较明显的线性向上即增多的变化趋势。小波分析表明,长连续暴雨具有10-20年和3-5年左右的周期振荡。长连续暴雨过程500hPa合成平均距平图上,新地岛-贝加尔湖分别为+4.0、+3.0的正距平中心。纽芬兰岛东部地区至欧洲为-4.0的负距平中心控制,华南沿海地区为-1.0的负距平中心控制。正、负距平中心的分布呈南北方向排列。表明经向环流较强,冷空气活动频繁。长连续暴雨过程海温合成平均距平场的分布呈近似La-nina海温分布型,这种中高纬与低纬的环流形势配置,以及海温合成距平场特征,有利于广东产生长连续暴雨过程。本文的研究还揭示了长连续暴雨过程前期3——6月海温场的演变是一个La-nina海温分布型减弱的过程,而无连续暴雨过程3——6月海温场的演变维持为EL-nino海温分布型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Long Continuous rainstorm is one of the extremely catastrophic events,of which the causative and forecasting have been of much concerns to meteorologists.In this article,we study on the data of daily precipitation from 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong province from 1961-2008.The characteristics and causative of continuous rainstorm climate are analyzed by statistic method Result:continuous rainstorm climate occurred since the 90s.There is an obviously increasing trend in the linear trend line as well as a pronounced 10-20 yearly or 3-5 yearly periodic oscillations on 500hPa height composite average anomaly field:Novaya Zemlya 、sea Kara and Lake Baikal are controlled by positive anomaly center;European andTaiwan-coast insouthern china-Indochina peninsula are controlled by negative anomaly center;composite average anomaly field of sea surface temperature of long-continuous rainstorm process is similar to the type of La Nina oceanic temperature distribution,of which the medium-low altitude and low altitude circumfluence and the composite average anomaly field of sea surface temperature as well are more benefit to induce long-continuous processes of rainstorm.Our study also reveals that evolvement of the oceanic temperature field in the prophase of 3-6 month of the long-continuous processes of rainstorm is a weakening process of La Nina oceanic temperature distribution,while the evolvement of the oceanic temperature field in the prophase of 3-6 month without long-continuous rainstorm is a El Nino oceanic temperature distribution.更多还原