【作者】 袁昌洪； 刘文军； 王世华； 刘方； 景利民；

【Author】 Yuan changhong1 liu wenjun1 wang shihua1 liu fang1 Jing limin2 (1. Taizhou Meteorological Bureau Taizhou 225300 ; 2. Taizhou Agricultural Bureau Taizhou 225300)

【机构】 泰州市气象局； 泰州市农业局；

【摘要】 本文以1987～2006年泰州地区小麦赤霉病发生程度为研究对象,以旬为因子的时间跨度,在旬平均气温、旬降水量、旬降水日数(≥0.1毫米日数)、旬平均相对湿度、旬日照时数等因子中,选取相关系数较高且稳定性好的预测因子,然后在逐步回归分析方法的基础上,集成建立了泰州地区小麦赤霉病发生程度的动态预测模式。长、中、短期模式的起报时间分别为当年的1月上旬、2月下旬和4月上旬。经过预测模式的回报检验,显示其效果比较理想。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article from 1987 to 2006 occurred in Taizhou region of wheat scab degree of study, for the ten days-to-time span, the average temperature in ten days, ten days of precipitation, precipitation old days (≥ 0.1 mm days), ten days-average relative Humidity, sunshine duration, and so on- ten days factor, select a high correlation coefficient of stability and good predictors, and then in the stepwise regression analysis on the basis of the establishment of integrated Taizhou region of wheat scab occurred in the level of dynamic forecasting model. Long-, medium-and short-term pattern has been reported since the time of the year in early January, late February and early April. After the return of the forecasting models tested, the results show that ideal.更多还原