【作者】 李军玲； 刘忠阳； 邹春辉；

【Author】 LI Jun-ling, LIU Zhong-yang,ZOU Cun-hui (1. Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003; 2. Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique, CMA )

【机构】 河南省气象科学研究所； 中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室；

【摘要】 洪涝灾害风险评估与区划是洪涝灾害研究的重要内容,已有许多人对洪涝灾害风险进行了评价,有建立指标体系进行指数计算的,有用GIS进行风险区划的,但很少有人能将两者结合起来进行系统的研究。本文在分析洪灾形成的各主要因子的基础上,提出了基于地理信息系统的洪灾风险评估指标模型,在对指标体系赋予权重的基础上结合GIS进行洪涝灾害风险评估和区划分析,结合河南省具体情况,以降雨、地形和区域社会经济易损为主要指标,得出河南省洪灾风险综合区划图,既有赋予权重后的准确性又有GIS区划图的一目了然,具有一定的理论和实践意义。从所得到的洪涝灾害风险区划图可以看出,信阳、驻马店、周口大部分地区发生洪涝的风险比较大,黄河流域的焦作、郑州、开封和安阳、濮阳的部分地区发生洪涝的可能也较大,其它地区发生洪涝可能性不大。指标模型是一种确定性方法,其实现通常需要与地理信息系统有机结合,本文在AHP方法和Arcgis工具基础上实现各种指标的定量描述和综合,通过尝试给今后的研究提供一种有效合理的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Flood risk can, in general terms, be defined as probability time consequence. It consists of flood hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis and damage evaluation. At present, there are many studies on the flood disaster risk assessment, which by constructing evaluation system or regional torrent risk zonation based on GIS, but few researches is the combination. In this paper, GIS has been chosen to quantitatively represent the influencing factors, spatialize the data into the uniform grid system, and transfer all the data item into the effect degrees on the probability of flooding, and based on constructing evaluation system and combining GIS, flood risk assessment and regional torrent risk zonation are analyzed. At last, a categorical model for flood risk zonation has been put forward. The approach has been applied to the Henan Province flood disaster risk zonation. The accuracy of evaluation system by giving weight and the significance of regionalization map are provided. The case study shows that the GIS-based category model is effective in flood risk zonation. So the paper has a certain theoretical and practical significance.更多还原