【作者】 李月英； 柳斌辉； 牛英洁； 王霞； 张歆婕； 栗雨勤；

【Author】 Li Yueying1, Liu Binhui2,Li Yuqin2 (1. Hengshui Meteorological Bureau, Hengshui, Hebei 053000; 2. Dryland Farming Institute, Hebei Academy of Agricultural & Forestry Sciences, Hengshui, Hebei 053000)

【机构】 衡水市气象局； 河北省农林科学院旱作农业研究所；

【摘要】 为了充分利用河北低平原区气候资源和制定合理的小麦栽培管理方案提供依据,采用1976～2006年衡水市冬小麦平均产量以及衡水市所辖4县(市、区)气象资料,对冬小麦产量与各气象因子进行了相关分析、通径分析。结果表明,气象因子与小麦产量密切相关。在与小麦产量相关的35个气象因子中,有12个因子的相关系数达到了显著水平,其中灌浆期降水与冬小麦产量呈极显著相关,且直接通径系数最高,对小麦产量贡献率最大;其次,是拔节期降水量和返青期降水量;4、5月份的蒸发量与冬小麦产量密切相关,分别达到接近显著和极显著水平,对小麦产量形成起较大的负向作用;小麦越冬期间的气温也是不可忽视的气象因素。在制定小麦生产管理计划时,应将以上因素作为考虑的重点,科学设置小麦生产管理规划,以期获得最好的经济效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to take full advantage of the Agroclimatic resource to explore the growth and fertility regularity and to develop the wheat cultivation and management programs in Hebei Low Plain, the correlation analysis and path analysis of average winter wheat yield and weather information of 1976 to 2006 in Hengshui were carried out. The results showed that meteorological factors were closely related to wheat yield. The correlation coefficient of 12 of the 35 meteorological factors that related to the wheat yield reached a significant level. The precipitation during filling stage and winter wheat yield was significantly related, and the direct path coefficient was the highest, and it contributed the most to the wheat yield, followed by the precipitation of elongating stage and turning green period. The evapotranspiration in April and May negatively correlated with winter wheat yield and reached significant and very significant levels, respectively. The winter temperature was correlated with wheat yield. All these factors should be considered as the focus of scientific management during wheat yield in order to obtain the best economic benefits.更多还原