【作者】 黄美花； 曹丽青； 葛朝霞；

【Author】 HUANG Mei-hua1,2 CAO Li-qing2 GE Zhao-xia2 ( 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,China 2. Institute of hydrology and water resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 ,China)

【机构】 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室； 河海大学水文与水资源学院；

【摘要】 利用乌江流域4个气象站1951～2006年共56年的月平均气温及降水资料,计算了乌江流域平均蒸发量及水资源总量。分析了56年来乌江流域气候及水资源总量变化,并分析了气候变化对水资源的影响。通过分析结论如下:①20世纪60年代至80年代中期乌江流域降水高于平均值,为正距平;80年代中至20世纪末低于平均值,为负距平;21世纪初至2006年略高于平均值,为正距平。气温整体呈上升趋势,自20世纪90年代起增温剧烈,温度高于平均值,为正距平;20世纪60年代至80年代末,蒸发量在平均值附近;90年代至2006年略低于平均值,为负距平。水资源总量变化趋势同降水较为一致。②降水与水资源量间存在明显的正相关。利用相关分析法,建立了降水变化对水资源总量影响的统计评估模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The average total amount of evaporation and water resources in Wujiang River Basin were calculated using monthly rainfall and temperature date at four stations in Wujiang River Basin from 1951 to 2006. The change of climate and water resources in Wujiang River Basin during the 56 years and the impact of climate change on water resources were analyzed. By analyzing, the conclusions were as follows: ① the temperature of Wujiang River Basin continuously increased during the 56 years. The temperature increased acutely from 1990s. It was higher than the average. From the 1960s to the middle of the 1980s, the evaporation was close to the average. From 1990s to 2006 the evaporation was slightly lower than average. From the 1960s to the middle of the 1980s, the precipitation was higher than the average, and from the middle of the 1980s to 2000 was lower than the average, and from 2000 to 2006 was slightly higher than the average. The total volume of water resources trends was more consistent with the precipitation. ② There is an obvious positive correlation between the precipitation and the total volume of water resources. A assessment model is established using the correlation analysis to study the impact of precipitation change on the total volume of water resources.更多还原