【作者】 吴迪生； 张娟； 刘增宏； 俞胜宾； 周水华； 张文静； 王文娟； 冯伟忠；

【Author】 Wu Di Sheng1,2 Zhang Juan1,2 Lil Zeng Hang2 Yu Sheng Bin1 Zhou Shui Hua1,2 Zhang Wen Jing1,2 Wang Wen Juan1 Feng Wei Zhong1,2 1.South China Sea Marine Prediction Center of SOA,Guangzhou,510300,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration,Hangzhou,310012,China;

【机构】 国家海洋局南海洋预报中心； 卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室,国家海洋局第二海洋研究所；

【摘要】 为探索赤道西太平洋暖池次表层水温异常与热带气旋的关系,用赤道西太平洋暖池和南海SOTA实测资料,对TC的影响做了统计分析,结果表明:赤道西太平洋暖池SOTA与同步西太平洋TC个数不存在线性相关;赤道西太平洋暖池1月SOTA滞后5-7个月影响西太平洋的TC;赤道西太平洋暖池区1月的SOTA出现正(负)距平值时,当年西北太平洋和南海的TC生成时间比常年提早(推迟)是主要现象,极值年份尤其明显,当年夏季西北太平洋副热带高压偏弱(强),位置偏北(南),西太平洋暖池区上空对流加强(减弱),对台风生成有(不)利,台风生成平均位置偏西(东),TC的个数偏多(少)、偏强(弱),易于出现西行(东北转向)路径为主;南海中北部2月SOTA出现偏暖(冷)年,当年南海TC生成日期偏早(晚)、数量偏多(少)、偏强(弱)是主要现象。结论:赤道西太平洋暖池SOTA对TC影响明显,时间滞后。更多还原

【Abstract】 To study the relation between the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly(SOTA)of the equatorial western Pacific Warm Pool and the tropical cyclone(TC),the impact of TC has done a Statistical analysis using observed data.The results show that there is no linear correlation between the SOTA of the equatorial western Pacific Warm Pool and the quantity of Western Pacific TC in simultaneous period;and SOTA in January has a significant correlation with the quantity of TC in May to July.When the anomaly value of SOTA is positive(or negative),two main phenomena present in the same year:One is that western Pacific TC and the South China Sea TC generate earlier(or later) than normal year,the phenomenon turns to be especially distinct in the extreme years;The other is that the intensity of Northwest Pacific subtropical high is strong(or weak),the northerly(or southerly) location,the convection over Western Pacific Warm Pool turns to strengthen(or Weakened),which make a disadvantage to generation of TC,the easterly(or westerly) Average position of TC which generates,the quantity of Northwestern Pacific TC becomes more(or less),westbound(Northeast shift) path of TC are easy to occur.When the SOTA in the central and northern South China Sea is positive(or negative) in February,the generation of the South China Sea TC in the same year is often ahead of time(or postpones),and the quantity becomes more(or less),and the intensity of TC is stronger(or weaker).the last result:Equatorial Western Pacific Warm Pool SOTA has an obvious impact on the TC,and taking place in the lag.更多还原