【作者】 孟春雷； 张朝林； 郑祚芳； 程丛兰；

【Author】 MENG Chun-Lei ZHANG Chao-Lin ZHENG Zuo-Fang and CHENG Cong-Lan Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089

【机构】 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所；

【摘要】 道面具有不透水、低反照率、低热容、高热导率以及无蒸发等特点,现有数值预报模式中的下垫面模式水平分辨率太低,不足以将道路与其它下垫面分离开来,因此对道面参数的预报产生较大误差。本文在通用陆面模式(CoLM)的基础上,针对道面下垫面的特点,发展了适用于城市街道及公路道面的陆面模式;并于北京快速更新循环中尺度数值天气预报系统(BJ-RUC)结合,构建道面气象条件数值预报模型。通过模拟道面冬季积雪覆盖、夏季道面温度对模型进行了性能检验。结果表明,模式能够较好的模拟道面温度的日变化以及积雪堆积、融化过程;相对于仅采用3km水平分辨率BJ-RUC模式进行预报,新发展的道面数值预报模型在正午前后道面温度非常高时与观测值符合得更好,与观测值相比,误差减小了约50%。本文所发展的道面数值气象预报模型可以应用于道面气象预报专家系统,为城市街道及公路气象预报服务。下一步将对道面数值预报模型进一步改进,并且与现有的北京城市气象研究所道面天气信息系统耦合,投入业务化运行,提高道面气象预报能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Comparing to other land cover types,road have many new characteristics such as no vegetation cover. water imperviousness,low albedo etc.The numerical forecast model has relatively low horizontal resolution at present,so it cannot separate the road from other land covers,then it cannot forecast road parameters accurately. This article developed a numerical forecast model for road meteorological services based on the Common Land Model(CoLM)and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle Model(BJ-RUC).The verification results indicate that the numerical forecast model can simulate the diurnal variation of road temperature and snow depth well;comparative to using the BJ-RUC model,using the numerical forecast model can forecast road temperature more accurate especially when the road temperature is extremely high;the error would be reduced about 50%.The numerical forecast this paper developed can be applied to the road weather forecast expert system,and served for the weather forecast of urban traffic and road.In the near future,the numerical forecast model would be improved and coupled with the road weather information system of Beijing urban meteorology.更多还原