【作者】 康永尚； 窦凤珂； 张兵； 叶建平；

【Author】 Kang Yongshang~(1,2) Dou Fengke~3 Zhang Bing~4 Ye Jianping~4 (1.School of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249; 2.State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Detection,China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249,China; 3.Shandong Provincial Research Institute of Coal Geology Planning and Exploration; 4.China United Coalbed Methane limited liability company,Beijing 100011,China)

【机构】 中国石油大学(北京)地球科学学院； 中国石油大学油气资源与探测国家重点实验室； 山东省煤田地质规划勘察研究院； 中联煤层气有限责任公司；

【摘要】 合理预测煤层气井的产气量对于提高煤层气开发经济效益具有重要意义,目前常用的煤层气井产量预测方法有数值模拟方法和产量递减曲线方法,数值模拟方法对输入参数有严格的要求,一些参数常常难以获得,而产量递减曲线法仅适用于出现较长递减期后的煤层气井产量预测。本文针对中国煤层气开发历史短、递减特征不明显等特点,提出了煤层气井产量预测的动态统计方法,该方法基于煤储层产气潜力和解吸程度系数(释放程度)决定煤层气并产量的基本原理,在静态地质条件分析的基础上,根据煤层气井早—中期排采动态资料,建立煤层气井产量与储层产气潜力和解吸程度系数之间的统计模型,进而对煤层气井达到产气峰值之前的产量进行预测,并用实际资料对该方法进行了验证,误差分析表明,煤层气井产量预测的动态统计方法具有较高的预测精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Reasonable prediction of coalbed methane gas production has important significance for the economic benefit of coalbed methane development,and now the common forecasting methods are numerical simulation method and production decline curve method.The numerical simulation method has strict requirements on the parameter but some of the parameters are often difficult to obtain.The production decline curve method is only suitable for a longer period of gas production decline.In this paper,according to the characteristics of the short history and the not obvious decreasing feature of Chinese coalbed methane development,put forward the dynamic statistical method for the yield prediction of coalbed methane.This method is based on the principle that the gas production potential of coal reservoir and the coefficient of desorption degree(release degree) determine the gas production of coalbed methane wells.Through the analysis of the static geological conditions and the early - middle drainage dynamic data of the coalbed methane wells,established the statistical model about the gas production,the gas production potential of coalbed methane and the desorption degree coefficient,then forecast the coalbed methane gas production before reaching the peak of gas production.By demonstrating this method uses the actual data in the region of the interest,the error analysis shows that the dynamic statistical method for predicting gas production has higher prediction accuracy.更多还原