【作者】 张姝丽； 张德山； 何海娟； 穆启占；

【Author】 Zhang Shu-li~1,Zhang De-shan~1,He Haijuan~2,Mu Qizhan~1 (1.Beijing Specialized Meteological Observatory,Beijing 100089,China; 2.Peking Union Medical College Hospital,Beijing 100730,China)

【机构】 北京市专业气象台； 北京协和医院变态反应科；

【摘要】 对北京城区10年8月逐日花粉总数量和致敏花粉数量的分析发现,北京夏秋季花粉日数量在"立秋"节气的前、中期呈缓慢增加趋势;在"立秋"节气的后期迅速增加;当进入"处暑"节气,日花粉总数量增长到峰值,并居峰值左右摆动.利用统计方法建立不同天气分型条件下以时间序列为因子的日花粉总数量和致敏花粉数量的短期预报模型,编制了日花粉总数量和日致敏花粉数量短期预报的软件操作平台,自动读取分型因子,制作出未来24小时北京花粉总数量和日致敏花粉的预报产品.更多还原

【Abstract】 The analysis of daily total pollen number and allergic pollen numbe in ten years in Beijing shows that the daily pollen number in Beijing in Summer and Autumn displays a slow increase trend before and around the Beijing of Autumn(13th solar term) and quik increase after;the daily total pollen number reaches its peak value around the End of Heat(14th solar term).Using statistical method, the short-term forcast models of the daily total pollen number and the allergic pollen number for various weather patterns are devised,and the corre-sponding softerware operating platform is developed.The 24-hour forecast products of the total pollen number and the diurnal allergic pollen number in Beijing can be made.更多还原