【作者】 胡明礼； 刘文杰； 韩飞；

【Author】 Hu Mingli;Liu Wenjie;Han Fei;Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, College of economics and management;Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Center of Science and Development;

【机构】 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院； 南京航空航天大学科学发展研究中心；

【摘要】 火箭发射和修复问题中事件发生概率一般是灰数,本文针对事件发生概率为灰数的情况,提出了该问题的灰概率GERT模型,讨论了模型求解的方法,给出了火箭的平均寿命、火箭的平均发射次数、至少有一次发射成功的概率、首次发射成功的时间等网络参数的计算结果,算例验证了新模型的有效性,计算结果更符合实际,本文研究进一步拓展了GERT模型的应用范围。更多还原

【Abstract】 The probability of rocket launch and repair problem are usually uncertain, considering the probability of an event occurring as grey numbers, a novel grey probability GERT model is put forward in this paper, discussed the method of model, calculated the rocket’s average life, average number of launches, the probability of at least a successful launch, the time of first successful launch. Examples demonstrated the effectiveness of the new model, the results are more realistic. This work will expend the application rage of GERT model.更多还原