【作者】 高晶鑫； 隽志才； 董英荣；

【Author】 Jingxin GAO1,Zhicai JUAN1,Yingrong DONG2 1Transportation and Traffic College,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai,China 2College of Transportation,Jilin University,Changchun,China

【机构】 上海交通大学管理学院； 吉林大学交通学院；

【摘要】 本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象,介绍居民出行目的地选择模型理论方法,并建立C-Logit目的地选择模型。结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解,并设计目的地选择仿真流程,解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素。对预测结果进行分析,得到较高的目的地选择预测精度,为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focus on the travel destination choice of urban residents. It illustrates the methods for how to predict the decision of travel destination choice, and establishes C-Logit model of destination choice. Under the help of the urban travel data from an urban traffic area in our country, it calibrates the model and designs simulation process of destination choice for the residents to explain the many factors which can affect the destination choice decision. The prediction results which have a higher prediction accuracy from the dis- aggregate level were analyzed. This paper provides a new method to simulate the travel destination choice of urban residents.更多还原