【作者】 杨治国； 宋小宁；

【Author】 ZHIGUO YANG XIAONING SONG (Xiamen University)

【机构】 厦门大学经济学院；

【摘要】 本文基于新开放经济宏观经济学,通过建立反映中国宏观经济特征的动态一般均衡模型,探讨经济结构、名义汇率、实际汇率和经常账户余额等宏观经济变量之间的关系,并且运用SVAR模型实证检验了模型推论。研究发现,长期来看,实际汇率主要取决于本国贸易部门与非贸易部门的生产率状况,以及贸易部门或非贸易部门的份额,名义汇率对实际汇率并无显著的长期影响。长期来看,实际汇率为影响本国经常账户余额的关键因素,名义汇率对其同样无显著影响。因此,中国巨大的贸易部门以及贸易部门相对非贸易部门较高的生产率,应为解释中国长期贸易顺差的主要原因。要改变经常账户持续盈余状况,关键在于促进服务业发展以提升我国的非贸易品部门份额以及提高非贸易品部门的相对生产率水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the new open economy macroeconomics, we develop a DSGE model which includes the characteristics of the China’s macro-economy to research the relation of economical structure, exchange rate and current account, and then test the conclusion of the model with SVAR. The model suggests that real exchange rate depend on the productivity and share of the trade and non-trade sector in the long run, on which nominal exchange rate has no long-term effect. In the long run, Real exchange rate mainly works on current account, on which nominal exchange rate have little effect. Therefore, larger scale and higher productivity of trade sector lead to constant surplus in China. In order to change the situation, it is vital to boost service industry to improve the share and productivity of non-trade sector.更多还原