【作者】 李效顺； 曲福田； 陈友偲； 牟守国；

【Author】 Li Xiaoshun;Qu Futian;Chen Yousi;Mou Shouguo;The Key Laboratories of Resources Environment and Information Engineering in Jiangsu Province,China University of Mining and Technology;China Center for Land Policy Research,Nanjing Agriculture University;

【机构】 中国矿业大学江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室； 南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心；

【摘要】 经济发展与城市蔓延一直是学者研究的热点,其假说大都建立在发展与保护矛盾不断激化的基础之上。本文基于国内外城市发展轨迹的判断,提出新的研究假说:经济增长与城市蔓延存在Logistic曲线关系。并选择华东地区典型城市进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,国外(区域)经济发展由快速城镇化、工业化初级阶段过渡到高级或后工业化阶段进程中,对城市蔓延扩张的依赖程度逐渐减弱。第二,中国1978~2003年间经济发展与城市蔓延增长具有周期性波动特征,2003年以后两者的波动出现明显脱钩或分歧。第三,实证结果显示,上海、南京、无锡和徐州的第二、第三产业GDP在分别达到2 910亿元、1 020亿元、443亿元、942亿元时,城市蔓延扩张出现拐点,验证了研究假说,其规模上限分别为8.99万hm~2、6.01万hm~2、2.20万hm~2、3.43万hm~2。研究结论能够为我国城市蔓延治理和公共政策调整提供科学依据和直接参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economic growth and urban sprawl have been the scholar’s research hot spot,and the hypothesis is mostly based on the contradiction of the development and protection.This paper,based on the development track of cities at home and abroad,puts forward the new research perspective judgment.They are the logistic curve of growth and urban sprawl,and then select the east China area typical cities for empirical test.As the results show;First,Economic growth’ dependence on urban sprawl weakened gradually abroad from the rapid urbanization,industrialization primary phase transition to the senior or after the process of industrialization stage;Second,China’s economic growth and urban sprawl has periodical fluctuating characters from 1978 to 2003,and there has been significant decoupling or difference fluctuation since2003;Third,the empirical results show that the urban sprawl comes to turn when the tertiary industry GDP of Shanghai,Nanjing and Wuxi and Xuzhou will achieve respectively 2.91×10¹¹ Yuan、1.02×10¹¹Yuan,4.43×l0¹⁰ Yuan、9.42×l0¹⁰ Yuan,and this verified hypothesis,the scale cap will be 8.99×l0⁴hm²、6.01×l0⁴hm²,2.20×l0⁴hm²,3.43×10⁴ hm².Research conclusion can provide scientific basis and the direct reference for the management of urban sprawl and public policy adjustment in China.更多还原