【作者】 钟太洋； 黄贤金； 马其芳； 刘杨；

【Author】 ZHONG Taiyang;HUANG Xianjin;MA Qifang;LIU Yang;Department of Urban and Resources Sciences,Nanjing University;College of Land Resource and Environment,Jiangxi Agricultural University;

【机构】 南京大学城市与资源学系； 江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院；

【摘要】 本文在探讨基本农田涵义的基础上,提出了区域人均基本农田需求面积的计算模型。该模型综合考虑了城乡居民对农产品的消费、复种指数、粮食作物播种面积比例、单产水平以及城市化水平等因素。以江苏省为例,本文计算了1985—2004年江苏省人均基本农田需求面积,并考虑到餐饮业对居民饮食的影响,利用城乡居民在外饮食占食品支出的比例结算结果进行了修正。在此基础上,文章还估计了2005—2020年江苏省人均基本农田需求面积。此外,文章还分析了复种指数、粮食作物播种面积比例等参数值的变化对区域人均基本农田面积变化的影响。计算结果表明,1985—2004年之间,江苏省人均基本农田需求面积为0.057 hm~2,而2005—2020年,江苏省人均基本农田需求面积为0.052 hm~2。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper discussed the meaning of primary farmland,and defined regional primary farmland area per capital.Given that,the model to compute the regional primary farmland area per capital was built.The model includes parameters such as residents’ consumption,multiple-cropping index,the sdwn acreage proportion of grain crops,average product,and urbanization level.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,the paper calculated the primary farmland area per capital of Jiangsu province from 1985 to 2004.For the purpose of increasing accuracy,the results from 1991—1998 were adjusted by the ratio of residents’ food away-from-home expenditure to aggregate food expenditure,which would influence the residents’ consumption of produce dependent on cultivated land.Furthermore,the paper estimated the value of primary farmland area per capital in Jiangsu province from 2005 to2020,and analyzed the impact of multiple-cropping index and he sown acreage proportion of grain crops on the regional primary farmland area per capital.The results shows that the average value of primary farmland area per capital of Jiangsu province from 1985 to 2004 is 0.057 hm~2,and that from 2005 to 2020 is 0.052 hm~2.更多还原