【作者】 吴娟； 陆桂华； 吴志勇；

【Author】 WU Juan~(1,2),LU Guihua~(1,2),WU Zhiyong~(1,2) (1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources.Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China; 2.Institute of Water Problem,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

【机构】 河海大学水文水资源学院； 河海大学水问题研究所；

【摘要】 针对基于单模式陆气耦合模型在洪水预报中存在不确定性的问题,利用三种数值天气预报模式MC2、GEM与T213开展基于多模式降水集成的陆气耦合洪水预报研究。通过淮河流域2007—2009年3场暴雨洪水验证表明:基于多模式降水集成的陆气耦合洪水预报可以有效地减小不确定性、提高精度和稳定性;但基于多模式降水集成的陆气耦合洪水预报对小尺度局地强降水仍存在较大的不确定性,今后需对此展开进一步的研究,以给出更加稳定、可靠的洪水预报结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to meet the requirements for addressing uncertainty problems in flood forecasting on account of single model precipitation forecasting,a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system based on multi-model integrated precipitation forecasting has been implemented in a configuration for three episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Wangjiaba sub-region from 2007 to 2009.The encouraging results obtained in this study demonstrate that the coupled system based on multi-model integrated precipitation forecasting has a promising potential of discharge accuracy and stability in terms of amount and timing,along with reducing uncertainties in flood forecasts and models. Moreover,the precipitation distribution of numerical weather prediction(NWP) is unsatisfactory in small temporal and spatial scales,even at high resolution,which requests further research on storm-scale data assimilation,sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds and other small-scale atmospheric dynamics.更多还原