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基于人工神经网络的淀山湖入湖通量与水体富营养化相关性研究
Study on the relationship between pollutants influx and eutrophication of Dianshan Lake based on artificial neural network
【Author】 XU Zu-xin,YAN Jun,YIN Hai-long (School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai,200092;
【机构】 同济大学污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室;
【摘要】 通过构建基于反向传播的淀山湖人工神经网络模型,研究了淀山湖入湖口污染输入与水体富营养化的相关关系。利用2006-2008年淀山湖7个水质监测点的监测数据,构建湖内水质监测点的人工神经网络模型(模型A),识别主要水质参数;进一步,针对主要水质参数,建立急水港、大朱厍、千墩港、白石矶等4个主要入湖口和淀山湖内水质监测点的人工神经网络模型(模型B),识别入湖通量输入的主要影响因素。利用决定系数(R~2)、均方根误差(RMSE)、实测结果和模型计算值之间的偏差,对淀山湖人工神经网络模型的可靠性进行评估;结果表明,模型预测的叶绿素α含量结果很好的拟合了实测结果,精度较高。采用平衡分配法研究不同入湖口各水质参数对淀山湖叶绿素α的贡献度,表明总磷是淀山湖水体富营养化的决定性水质参数,模型A和模型B的预测结论具有一致性。
【Abstract】 Based on the back-propagation artificial neural network of Dianshan Lake,we studied the pertinence between flux and eutrophication in Dianshan Lake.With monitoring data of 4 entrances (Jishuigang,Dazhushe,Qiandungang and Baishiji)and 7 monitoring points in the lake from 2006 to 2008,one artificial neural network for the Dianshan Lake(i.e.,model A)was built to recognize the main water quality indicators.The next,another network(i.e.,model B)including the 4 entrances and 7 lake inside monitoring points was built to recognize the relationship of pollutant influx with the lake eutrophication.The performance of the ANN models was assessed through the coefficient of determination(R~2)(square of the correlation coefficient),root mean square error(RMSE)and bias computed from the measured and model computed values of the dependent variables.The simulated values by the two ANN models were in close agreement with their respective measured values.Then relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output was evaluated through the partitioning approach,and the results shown that the phosphorus is the dominant factor to control lake euthophication,which is proved by both model A and model B.
【Key words】 BP artificial neural network; eutrophication; Dianshan Lake; chlorophylα; pollutant influx.;
- 【会议录名称】 第九届全国水动力学学术会议暨第二十二届全国水动力学研讨会论文集
- 【会议名称】第九届全国水动力学学术会议暨第二十二届全国水动力学研讨会
- 【会议时间】2009-08
- 【会议地点】中国四川成都
- 【分类号】X524
- 【主办单位】上海《水动力学研究与进展》杂志社、四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护实验室