【作者】 毛昭勇； 宋保维； 胡海豹；

【Author】 MAO Zhao-yong,SONG Bao-wei,HU Hai-bao (School of Marine Engineering,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China)

【机构】 西北工业大学航海学院；

【摘要】 Bayes理论是分析研究具有小子样特点复杂系统可靠性的有效方法,文中针对Compertz增长模型,提出了Bayes可靠性增长分析的基本方法。该方法将可靠性增长的试验数据作为产品可靠性的先验信息,再结合少量的现场试验样本,运用Bayes方法即可对现场试验后的产品可靠性进行评定。仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性,为可靠性增长评定提供了一种新的分析方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Bayesian method is adopted as an important and suitable approach to the reliability analysis and evaluation for the system,because of its complexity and small sample tests.The reliability growth Bayesian method for the Compertz model was proposed,which can obtain the prior distribution based on the test information of reliability growth.Then combining with the small sample experiment data,the reliability evaluation can be calculated by Bayesian method.The simulation example shows that the method proposed is effective,and better than classical evaluation method.更多还原