【作者】 王尚俊； 吴刚； 陈华友； 周礼刚；

【Author】 Wang shangjun~(1,2),Wu gang~(1,2),Chen huayou~3,Zhou Ligang~3 1 Marketing Center,Huangshan Tobacco Company, Huangshan,245000,China; 2 MLE Center,University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei,230026,China; 3 School of Mathematical Sciences,Anhui University, Hefei,230601,China

【机构】 黄山市烟草公司营销中心； 中国科学技术大学物流工程硕士中心； 安徽大学数学科学学院；

【摘要】 本文通过建立偏最小二乘回归模型对黄山市卷烟消费的影响因素进行实证分析。首先,分析了黄山市卷烟消费需求的相关影响因素。其次,考虑到卷烟消费相关影响因素之间的相关关系建立了卷烟消费的偏最小二乘回归模型。然后利用黄山市2000-2010年的相关数据对卷烟消费的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明,卷烟消费量与列出的14个影响因素均具有显著的相关关系,提取的5个主成分对卷烟消费和相关因素的累积解释能力分别达到99.87%和99.66%。14个影响因素中,农村居民人均消费支出、人口数、商品零售价格指数、旅游接待量、居民消费价格指数这5个指标对卷烟消费的解释能力最强,其它指标对卷烟消费也有明显的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The empirical analysis of influential factor on demand of cigarettes in Huangshan is investigated on the basis of the partial least square regression analysis.Firstly,some related factors on demand of cigarettes in Huangshan are analyzed.Secondly,the partial least square regression model is developed with the correlation between the demand of cigarettes and its influencing factors.Then,using the related data,the empirical analysis of influential factor on demand of cigarettes is given.The results indicated that there are significant correlation between the demand of cigarettes and its factors.The cumulative rates of interpretation of five principal components with respect to the dependent variable and the independent variable are reached to 99.87 percent and 99.66 percent,respectively.In addition,the explanatory power of the per-capita consumption expenditure of rural people,the number of the people,the commodity retail price index,the tourist receipts and the consumer price index is stronger than others.更多还原